Thanksgiving – Always never good for Hog Prices

Jim Long's Pork Commentary

Pork Commentary,  December  2nd 2019
Jim Long, President-CEO, Genesus Inc

Last week the U.S. celebrated the Thanksgiving holiday. It is a holiday to give thanks but for pig producers it’s a time where hog prices plummet as seasonal maximum supply collides with holiday shortened slaughter capacity. 

The end result; hog prices are weak and usually selling below cost of production.  This year is no exception. Current Hog Prices at 58₵ lean a lb., are well below break-even.

Some Observations: 
The September 1st U.S. Hogs and Pigs Report indicates 5-6% more hogs under 120 pounds then the previous year while 120 lbs. was 2% higher. We should begin to be marketing in the 2% range now – this will help hog prices.

U.S. Pork Cut-Outs were 82₵ lb. Friday and Hog Prices 58₵.  A difference of 24₵ per lb. or $50 per head packer gross margin.  82₵ is good, it means pork is selling despite record kills.  A packer told us last week that a couple weeks ago was their most profitable week ever.  As weekly kills decline, there is definite upside for Pork Cut-out and hog price increases. 

China is looking for Pork. We sell swine genetics not pork.  We are getting many enquiries for us to supply pork. If we are getting such activity, suspect Packers getting inundated. All pork that goes to the black hole that is China’s food need will support our prices. 

Chinese government is predicting 3 million tonnes of pork to be imported in 2020 from everywhere. That’s equivalent to 30-35 million market hogs. This expectation is based, we suspect, on significant recovery of China’s pork production. Might be too soon to predict that scenario, with ASF still prevalent.

We expect sooner rather than later U.S.-Canada hog prices will move to European prices that have been supported by large exports to China.  Currently they are in the 95₵ to $1.00 lean range. Liveweight U.S. lb. European range 71-74₵ lb.  Chinas current Hog Price is average 32.66 rmb/kg or $2.11 U.S. liveweight a lb.

An example of Exports to China is Cranswick – a leading British Pork Packer. Year to date China exports up 94 percent.  Cranswick Boss – Adam Couch said “We are sending 100 lorries’ worth of pig meat every week”“Demand is growing and we don’t see it slowing.”

Now Thanksgiving is over. September 1st Hogs and Pig Report showed 2% year over year hog supply.  We expect lean hog prices to show strength over the coming weeks as Exports continue at a rapid pace.

Get acquainted with the 
Global Mega Produce

A program of recognition led by National Hog Farmer sponsored by Genesus Inc.

Hubei Xiang Da

Hubei Xiang Da is recognized as a Global Mega Producer for 2019.

Hubei Xiang Da Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Company Ltd. was established in 2001. The company is a leading enterprise in National agriculture with an integrated industrial chain covering the business of pig farming, slaughtering, meat processing and feed manufacturing. 

Hubei Xiang Da strives for rapid development through “company” plus “farmer” model; and it has established a food safety industrial chain “from field to table.” 

The company currently has 6,700 employees with 17 wholly owned subsidiary companies and 66 branch companies in Hubei, Anhui and Henan provinces. 

Hubei Xiang Da had 105,000 sows and produced 2.2 million hogs in 2018. Let’s congratulate Xiang Da upon their great achievement and recognize them as an industry leader and 2019 Global Mega Producer. 

Genesus China
Photo from left to right: Edwiin Hong, Business Development Manager for Genesus China; Yaping Gu, General Manager for Genesus China and Zhang Guoxiang, Vice President of Xiang Da Group