Tuesday, July 15, 2025

USDA September Hogs and Pigs Report Bullish

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Pork Commentary, September 27th, 2021
Jim Long, President-CEO, Genesus Inc.

The USDA September Hogs and Pigs Report is Bullish. Why?

  • Year over year almost 3 million hogs less in inventory (-4%).
  • Year over year herd down 143,000 (-2%).
  • Year over year 119 lbs. pigs down 2.7 million head (-6%) (down about 150,000 head a week).
  • Pig Crop June – July – August down 6%.
  • Farrowing Intentions September – November down 4%.

Year over year no doubt all inventory numbers and intentions are significantly lower. We expect these numbers will add a charge into market hog prices throughout the fall and winter. We expect high feed prices. The damage from financial Covid crisis in 2020 and cutting of farm capacities due to Prop 12 adjustment, all factors that have cut hog numbers.

Lean Hog Futures should gain 5–10 due to this bullish report in December and onward due to 2.7 million less head under 119 lbs. (-6%), that is about 150,000 fewer hogs per week to slaughter year over year.

USDA September 1st (x 1000)
 202020212021/2020
Breeding6,3336,19098%
Market72,10169,16296%
Market by Weight Group   
Under 50 lbs.23,14421,85594%
50 – 119 lbs.21,02019,75194%
120-179 lbs.14,86714,65699%
180 lbs. and over13,06912,89999%
Pig Crop2019202020212021/2020
June-July-August 36,37036,05633,90094%

Spain Road Trip 

This past week we attended the Figan Show in Zaragoza, Spain. Our Report:

The Figan Show was held over 4 days and attendance was much better than many expected.

Producers we talked to were concerned for the future as the industry has gone into a lost position and feed prices are historically high. Fortunately for Spanish producers, they have had good prices for many of the previous months.

Many exhibitors at the show from around Europe. All major global swine genetics companies attended except for Topigs–Norsvin which was surprising to us with Spain being the major swine production country.

Spain is the third-largest hog-producing country in the world and the largest in Europe with about 2.6 million sows. The market has been profitable until recently with prices now at 114 Euro/kg live, breakeven 120–122 Euro/kg live.

Spain has been the largest exporter of pork to China accounting for approximately 20% of China’s imports. With price collapse in China, Spain’s exports have dropped significantly putting more pork into Spain’s domestic market and other EU countries. Some countries i.e. Germany, Netherlands, Belgium, etc. are losing 35-40 Euros a hog currently ($50 US).

Spain’s swine industry is organized much differently than most of the rest of Europe, Spain uses an integrated model. Integrator usually owns sows, pigs, feed mills and in many cases slaughter plants. Contractors supply nursery, sow, finisher barns, and labor for a fee usually per head. In much of the rest of Europe, producers are independent family farms. Spain’s model has proven successful with its growing by over 1 million sows over the last decade while much of the rest of EU countries lost sow and pig numbers.

A unique part of Spain’s industry is the Mercolleida pricing structure. Every Thursday integrators, packers, and producer groups meet to discuss market and set suggested price for market hogs for the next week. This has gone on for decades. It’s unique in that a collaborated price is agreed between producers and packers. When you meet every Thursday, participants develop relationships that are not adversarial, how can it be, you know you are going to be together next Thursday and the Thursdays after that. It appears to have mostly struck a balance between packers and producers that has led to a sharing of hog profits better than other systems in the world.

This week we continue our tour of Spain. We will report other observations.

Genesus team at the Figan show in Zaragoza, Spain

Manuel Garcia of Vall Companys (World Mega Producer with 213,000 sows), who is also President of Interporc which is the national pig association of Spain, alongside Jim Long, President-CEO, Genesus Inc.

Road Trip to Spain

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Pork Commentary, September 20th, 2021
Jim Long, President-CEO, Genesus Inc.

As I write, we are somewhere over the Atlantic heading to Spain. This week the Genesus team will exhibit at Figan Event in Zaragoza, Spain. Figan is a biannual swine conference and exhibition for Spain’s swine industry. After Figan we will be visiting several Spanish pork producers. In the next couple of weeks, we will report our observations.

Spain is now the third-largest swine producer in the world. Spain has relentlessly grown in production over the last decade with now about 2.8 million sows. In the European Union, Spain has grown while several countries have declined or stayed much the same in the last decade. Spain has benefited greatly from its packers developed relationships with China capturing around 20% of China pork imports. It will be interesting to hear the observations in Spain now that China’s global pork imports have slowed.

It’s also nice to be traveling again. But it’s not easy with fewer flight options, Covid tests, and double vaccination needed. Even so, getting out to visit customers, Genesus production facilities, nucleuses, multiplication, A-I centres, and industry is invigorating.

Observations 

Read a report translated from Danish that feeder pigs have dropped to 15-20 Euros range ($20-25) – cost of production 50-60 Euros ($60-70). Denmark Exports about 15 million feeder pigs a year to Germany, Poland, Italy, and Spain. High feed prices and market hog price prospects have driven down the prices. In Germany and Poland ASF issue to market access has compounded the problem.

PRRS 144 breaks still ongoing. Nasty production killers. What will happen when fall comes when we normally see major breaks?

Interesting the seminars and articles on the explosion of sow mortality. With a dead sow worth or costing a producer $1,000 plus it’s little wonder. Many of you have had sow barns for many years. Bet in same barn, same almost everything, sow deaths have jumped, lots of zero or low-value sows, why? What’s changed? Weak genetics?

We believe U.S. lean hog futures have dropped lower than should. We expect cash lean hogs to stay relatively strong through the fall. We don’t see hog numbers to be increasing relative to a year ago. Beef prices, Chicken prices are strong. This supports Pork.

Global Market Round-up

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Pork Commentary, September 6th, 2021
Jim Long, President-CEO, Genesus Inc.

China

The hog price in China is 96¢ U.S. lb. (14.2 RMB/kg). Losses continue for China’s pork producers. The Financial Times estimates that publicly owned swine companies have lost over $70 billion U.S. in stock value since February. That’s a massive revaluation.


This past week USDA came out with an estimate that China’s hog production will decline 14% in 2022 caused by ASF, other health issues, and contraction in China’s hog production due to financial losses. 14% is a decrease of about 1.8 million heads a week.


According to China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) the cost of raising pigs this March to June was 2800 RMB per kg ($1.58 U.S. liveweight a lb.). The average current selling price is 14.2 RMB kg (96¢ lb.). The loss is 1.32 RMB kg (-64¢ U.S liveweight a lb.). Simple arithmetic; average current loss per head is $160 (250 lb. hog). In the first 6 months of the year, China averaged just under 13 million hogs marketed per week. Farmer Arithmetic; $160 per head loss average, times 13 million head = just over $2 billion U.S. a week loss?


This type of loss will be leading to huge liquidation and obviously ending most if not all construction. The loss level is unprecedented; no wonder reports of pigs dying without feed, bills unpaid, biosecurity being cut, disease increasing. We expect China will be cutting production at levels we can’t comprehend. The USDA projected decrease of 14% is probably not high enough.
China imports from the USA just under 5,000 tonnes of pork in the latest week. One thing this confirms, China is not bringing in much pork.

Europe

We understand the EU/Netherlands governments have a program to pay hog producers to close their farms. We understand the budget is about $500 million. This will lead to fewer hogs in the EU.

30 kg (66 lb.) feeder pigs from Denmark are selling for 200 DKK ($30 U.S). The 52-week average is 326 DKK ($52 U.S.). These current prices are well under the cost of production.

In Germany, the carcass price of hogs is 1.25 Euro/kg or 67¢/lb. U.S. Germany buys millions of feeder pigs from Denmark per year, the current feeder pig price reflects the poor market conditions in Germany. China’s pork imports slow down and ASF in Germany is increasing pork supply in all of the EU and pushing down prices.

USA


U.S. September corn closed Friday at $5.08 a bushel, down for September, being at $6.56 in early May. The $5.08 is the lowest price since early April. We expect to see some areas in the USA to be below $5.00 a bushel very soon. China hasn’t bought significant corn amounts since May. If major liquidation in swine is ongoing in China they won’t need as much corn. USDA projection of 14% decrease in China hog inventory would be about 90 million fewer hogs and a lot less corn needed.

A new dawn for rye as pig feed

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By Jeff Melchior

Hybrid fall rye has a 20 to 30 per cent yield advantage over conventional rye, which ultimately passes savings on to pork producers, according to Saskatchewan-based FP Genetics.

Tell some pork producers they should include rye in their pigs’ diet, and you may get some strange looks. They might point out that pigs do not like it and – perhaps more importantly – that it contains high amounts of ergot, a fungal disease that reduces milk production in lactating sows.

Those are legitimate concerns if you are talking about traditional, open-pollinated rye. But over the past several years, developers have been working to tackle the weaknesses of rye as a feed source. The result has been fall hybrid rye, a crop that breeders and researchers have identified as a competitive – but ultimately complementary – feedstuff for swine.

When used as directed, marketers claim pigs get a low-ergot feed they find palatable, filling and even calming. Proponents also tout its high amount of fibre – a trait inherited from its conventional counterpart.

On the cost front, research is showing that hybrid fall rye can offer producers a cheaper (or at least comparatively priced) feedstuff that is virtually equivalent to wheat and barley in terms of key performance metrics such as dry matter intake, average daily gain, feed efficiency, body weight and carcass quality.

Since 2014, Saskatchewan-based FP Genetics – a certified seed company owned by seed growers across the Prairies – has been heavily involved in the marketing and distribution of hybrid fall rye, thanks to the company’s relationship with Germany-based seed breeding company KWS, which has made the improvement of the crop a wide-ranging goal. The company’s specific breeding goals include higher yields and ergot defence, followed by better disease resistance and minimized lodging.

“There is little doubt that reduced ergot content has played a role in the success of our lineup of hybrid fall rye varieties to date,” said Herman Wehrle, Director of Commercialization, FP Genetics. “The new products that are coming online have significantly improved ergot defence. Even in the few years we’ve been in commercial production here in Canada, over that time, we’ve improved ergot defence by well over 50 per cent.”

Pollen aids in ergot resistance

In the case of the KWS/FP Genetics system, ergot resistance has been achieved by increasing pollen shedding in the growing process. Essentially, it involves high amounts of pollen-blocking ergot from entering the plant.

“The pollen goes into the ears, so then the ear will be closed, and no fungi can go inside,” said Claus-Hinrich Heuer, Product Manager, KWS. “When we started these breeding programs more than 15 years ago, we had some problems with ergot. We found out that we had to cross a special gene called ‘Rfp1’ in our plants. Due to this crossing, we could increase the pollen shedding significantly.”

Further enabling pollen shedding is one of KWS’s key goals in the fight against ergot: “It’s important to use much more pollen from the breeding side. We want to identify minora – or smaller – genes, which are responsible for the pollen shedding of our hybrids. And there are other breeding aspects where we are seeing improvement on pollen shedding so we reduce the risk of ergot in the plants,” Heuer added.

Feed mixing rates: an ongoing discussion

When mixing hybrid rye into feed for hogs, FP Genetics recommends a graduated system based on size, growth stage and circumstances.

A big concern is whether or not pigs will eat hybrid rye. Even if this was an issue with conventional rye, it does not appear to be one that has carried over to the hybrid varieties.

“In the past, people thought that, when you feed too much rye, they don’t eat it, and it reduces the feed intake, but this is not the case,” said Heuer. “We have done a lot of trials with pigs at different ages, and there’s no difference in palatability between hybrid fall rye and wheat. The feed uptake is normal.”

So if hybrid fall rye is safe for hogs, keeps them productive, and they like it, how much should you feed them? The amount of hybrid fall rye to mix into feed rations has been an ongoing discussion among producers and researchers for years.

This year, Molly Lee McGhee – in her doctoral dissertation at the University of Illinois – measured the extent to which hybrid rye could replace corn in pig feed rations without compromising average daily gain.

She concluded that hybrid rye is a suitable feed ingredient for pigs at all physiological stages, with the bottom line being that it may replace a majority of corn in diets for growing and reproducing pigs without negatively affecting gain. Of note was her discovery that up to 75 per cent of corn may be replaced with hybrid rye in gestating and lactating sow diets without hindering sow or litter performance, with diets replacing 25 to 50 per cent of corn, actually improving lactation performance.

FP Genetics errs on the side of caution in its feeding guidelines, with recommended dietary inclusions ranging from 10 per cent for piglets weighing less than 15 kilograms to 50 per cent for gestating sows and feeders weighing 60 kilograms or more. This graduated rate of inclusion accounts for extra energy needed along the pig’s life cycle and stages of stomach development.

“As the pigs get bigger and the stomach gets more developed, we suggest more and more rye input,” said Wehrle. “Once the stomach is fully developed, we’re saying you can replace 50 per cent of feed with hybrid rye, and you will not ever see any issue with respect to average daily gain, feed intake or any of those key metrics a swine producer has to look for.”

An exception is lactating sows, which carry a 25 per cent inclusion recommendation: “The reason for that is because they need a ton of energy at that time, and even though they have a well-developed stomach, we realize energy at that point is very, very important, so we drop the inclusion versus gestating sows, which are at 50 per cent inclusion,” Wehrle added.

Better bang for your buck but less availability

Due to limited availability in Canada, including hybrid rye at an appropriate rate can pose a challenge. Although rye acreage – largely consisting of hybrid varieties – has been increasing on the Prairies (Statistics Canada pegs 2019 seedings at 352,000 acres, compared to 225,000 in 2016), it is a drop in the bucket compared to wheat and barley.

“Quite frankly, if we got 10 per cent of the hog market in Canada, we would have to be growing many millions of acres of hybrid rye. We’re not even close to it,” said Heuer. “Producers would use more rye in the diet if they could get enough material. So, they’re more likely putting 10 to 20 per cent in the diet.”

Crop farmers who get their hands on the seed, however, are, for the most part, in for a bargain. Fall hybrid rye varieties generally produce 20 to 30 per cent more than conventional rye, producing a lower cost per tonne. These savings are typically passed on to pork producers.

“We’ve been able to lower the cost per acre of feed, because we get more tonnes per acre, and to a feed buyer, that’s going to mean he’s going to have access to a product that is a lower cost to produce on a metric tonne basis,” said Wehlre. “In the feed business, 70 per cent of the cost of hog production is feed, so if we can reduce the cost of feed, that’s a pretty positive thing.”

Hybrid rye helps pigs relax

A study by Alberta Agriculture and Forestry revealed similar outcomes of body weight, daily growth performance, carcass traits and overall cost versus benefit when replacing wheat with hybrid rye at one-third, two-thirds and 100 per cent inclusions.

From a health perspective, hybrid rye’s high amount of dietary fibre features a range of benefits. The fibres present in the rye lengthen digestion and reduce insulin spikes, stimulating additional fatty acids like butyrate that benefit gut health and even have an effect on farrowing, such as fewer crushed piglets, more piglets weaned, reduced piglet mortality and heavier litters.

A soon-to-be-published study conducted by KWS with the University of Hanover in Germany has found that this dietary fibre has a positive effect on the overall calmness of the herd. The preliminary data shows a reduction in running, biting and overall undesirable behaviour.

“We see a significant difference,” said Heuer. “This is especially important in group housing, where pigs are always coming and going with fights taking place.”

Considering adding hybrid rye to your rations? You might be pleasantly surprised at what is possible!

Fresh leadership in Manitoba and Ontario

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By Treena Hein

Earlier this year, the Ontario Pork and Manitoba Pork boards of directors welcomed new chairs. In conversation with the incoming and outgoing leaders in both provinces, all four were reached to provide their take on current and future priorities for their respective organizations.

Manitoba priorities include improved pricing

Rick Préjet

Rick Préjet, Manitoba Pork’s incoming board chair, grew up in Notre Dame de Lourdes – about 130 kilometres southwest of Winnipeg – where he assists his oldest son in running a 5,000-sow farrow-to-finish operation – including nurseries, finishing barns, a feed mill and trucking – which employs more than 40 people. After graduating with a diploma in agriculture from the University of Manitoba, Préjet worked for seven years in the feed industry before returning to Notre Dame with his wife Roseline and their four children to build a 150-sow hog farm, eventually partnering with local investors to build their larger operation, stimulating the local economy in the process.

Préjet is no stranger to the Manitoba Pork board, having already spent a decade serving on it. During six of those years, he led various committees, including human resources and industry performance. He also spent nine years serving on the Prairie Swine Centre board of directors, including several years as chair.

“I’ve always thought research was important,” said Préjet. “The Centre is an arm of the University of Saskatchewan, but financially independent, and that has always been the challenge – to make sure enough grant and producer dollars, as well as income from selling pigs, were coming in. Collaboration was therefore important, reaching out to other research institutions in western Canada and eventually to Ontario and Quebec, to ensure we were not overlapping with study topics. Research funding dollars are limited, and we must all work to stretch them as far as we can.”

In terms of Manitoba Pork’s goals, a top priority for Préjet is to do everything he can to move the western Canadian industry to more equitable pricing formulas with greater weight given to cutout values. Last year, Manitoba Pork and the producer organizations in B.C., Alberta and Saskatchewan approached major packers about the issue, and at this point, some have stepped up. Others, however, have not.

“There’s no quick answer,” said Préjet. “Discussions are ongoing to try and figure out the best plan. We are seeing independent producers continuing to close, because they can’t make enough money to keep going.”

Préjet also wants to focus on further development of collaboration across the value chain: “We’realready doing well with this, and we have a lot of people involved in this collaboration, so it’s a matter of continuing on. It’s about understanding each other’s needs and how we can make the system work for everyone.”

Business risk management is also a priority for Préjet: “We really appreciate the work that the federal agriculture minister and the provinces have done on this, ensuring there are long-term programs going forward that work for our industry.”

In the shorter term, Manitoba Pork staff are now reaching out to municipalities individually, following a discussion with the Association of Manitoba Municipalities, to consider the value of having hog operations in their areas. The Manitoba Pork board wants to inform elected officials and community members about what to expect with new building projects and address inaccurate perceptions.

“We’re also working again with Assiniboine Community College in Brandon on some changes we’d like to see to their pork production training courses,” said Préjet. “And it’s time again for us to do strategic planning as a board. We do this every five years.” 

Former Manitoba chair reflects on disease prevention

George Matheson

Préjet takes the reigns from George Matheson, who spent 15 years as a director and six years as the chair of the Manitoba Pork board. During his tenure, a concerted effort to stamp out porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) in Manitoba has proven very effective. That is, during 2019, the province’s pork producers lost about three per cent of the provincial herd – approximately eight million pigs – to PED, but in 2020, there were only three cases in the province, with none so far in 2021. However, vigilance remains critical, as there are lots of cases this year south of the border.

“It helps that there’s only one major route from the south into the province,” said Matheson. “And there is also lots of distance both west and east to other pork producers.” 

Over the years, Matheson also saw relationships with the U.S. pork industry develop significantly: “Things are very good now. Years ago, there were trade challenges, but we’re very integrated now as part of one big system, and I hope that that continues. We’ve kept ASF out, and we’ve got plans in place that should allow for continued exports from some areas of North America in case it’s found in a specific location.”

Matheson thanks the provincial pork industry for its long-standing confidence in him: “A great board and great staff made my job much less stressful.”

Collaboration and growth are key in Ontario

John de Bruyn

At Ontario Pork, new chair John de Bruyn is settling in. De Bruyn previously served as vice-chair and worked hard to secure support for a new swine research facility in Elora, near the University of Guelph.

“We got the capital investment together and will now have a facility similar to the beef and dairy research barns nearby,” said De Bruyn. “I believe this sends a message to young people and to our trade partners as well that pork is valued in Canada – that it’s an important industry.”

With his wife, Deb, De Bruyn has a 750-sow farrow-to-finish operation near Woodstock, about 50 kilometres northwest of London. Their five children have always contributed to the farm, and the oldest, Drew, has now taken on most of the operational duties. In his youth, De Bruyn graduated with a diploma from the Oxford School of Agriculture at Fanshawe College, and he has been active in Swine 4H and Ontario Pork over the years.

Above all this year, De Bruyn would like to see a return to stronger connections among Ontario’s pork producers: “I think personal interactions are important, and I’m looking forward to that as COVID-19 is taken care of. Online meetings have been good, but it’s very valuable for producers to share information in-person about running their farms. It’s also a way for producers to talk to us about their concerns and what we need as an industry going forward. And we need to build interest in serving on the board.”

De Bruyn also wants to ensure the political structure changes proposed for Ontario Pork prior to the pandemic move ahead. In addition, he wants to nurture sustainable industry growth: “Ontario has everything the industry needs. Lots of water, the best grain in the world, transportation infrastructure, the know-how. Having most of our feed grown here mitigates feed price fluctuations. The challenge is building the export market and ensuring we continue to prevent ASF entry and mitigate the risks of possible entry.”

De Bruyn is confident that Ontario’s pork producers can continue to exceed consumer expectations related to food safety, animal welfare and environmental footprint: “Most of our operations are on 100- or 200-acre parcels, so there’s ample room to handle more manure. We are also well-positioned with the provincial government and agencies like the Thames River Collaboration to continue working on environmental issues, such as phosphorus levels in Lake Erie. It’s a strength of Ontario Pork that we work collaboratively to seek out solutions, and we will continue to use that strength.”

De Bruyn would also like to see more investment in provincial processing capacity: “Right now, we rely on about 20,000 hogs a week being processed in other provinces, and some weaners are finished in the U.S. It would be great to have more processing here.”

Former Ontario chair prides himself on social responsibility

Eric Schwindt

Past Ontario Pork chair Eric Schwindt grew up on a farm near Elmira – just outside of Kitchener – where he and his wife Steph have raised their three daughters. Reflecting on his time as chair: “COVID-19 was certainly challenging. It took a lot of effort from producers, processors, marketers, transporters, Ontario Pork staff and government to keep market hogs moving, demonstrating the resiliency of the industry. Over the longer term, we also worked to build a collaborative approach with government for the continued development of business risk management programs.”

Schwindt thinks the other major accomplishment during his term was advancing the Ontario Pork social responsibility report. It demonstrates to all stakeholders that continued progress is being made to ensure pork is safe, sustainable and healthy, and it has been updated every year since 2015.

“I really appreciate the opportunity to have served as chair of Ontario Pork,” said Schwindt. “All the things I learned, all the people I’ve met, and the friendships – it’s been really fun and interesting.”

Global Market Round-up

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Pork Commentary, September 6th, 2021
Jim Long, President-CEO, Genesus Inc.

China

The hog price in China is 96¢ U.S. lb. (14.2 RMB/kg). Losses continue for China’s pork producers. The Financial Times estimates that publicly owned swine companies have lost over $70 billion U.S. in stock value since February. That’s a massive revaluation.


This past week USDA came out with an estimate that China’s hog production will decline 14% in 2022 caused by ASF, other health issues, and contraction in China’s hog production due to financial losses. 14% is a decrease of about 1.8 million heads a week.


According to China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs (MARA) the cost of raising pigs this March to June was 2800 RMB per kg ($1.58 U.S. liveweight a lb.). The average current selling price is 14.2 RMB kg (96¢ lb.). The loss is 1.32 RMB kg (-64¢ U.S liveweight a lb.). Simple arithmetic; average current loss per head is $160 (250 lb. hog). In the first 6 months of the year, China averaged just under 13 million hogs marketed per week. Farmer Arithmetic; $160 per head loss average, times 13 million head = just over $2 billion U.S. a week loss?


This type of loss will be leading to huge liquidation and obviously ending most if not all construction. The loss level is unprecedented; no wonder reports of pigs dying without feed, bills unpaid, biosecurity being cut, disease increasing. We expect China will be cutting production at levels we can’t comprehend. The USDA projected decrease of 14% is probably not high enough.
China imports from the USA just under 5,000 tonnes of pork in the latest week. One thing this confirms, China is not bringing in much pork.

Europe

We understand the EU/Netherlands governments have a program to pay hog producers to close their farms. We understand the budget is about $500 million. This will lead to fewer hogs in the EU.

30 kg (66 lb.) feeder pigs from Denmark are selling for 200 DKK ($30 U.S). The 52-week average is 326 DKK ($52 U.S.). These current prices are well under the cost of production.

In Germany, the carcass price of hogs is 1.25 Euro/kg or 67¢/lb. U.S. Germany buys millions of feeder pigs from Denmark per year, the current feeder pig price reflects the poor market conditions in Germany. China’s pork imports slow down and ASF in Germany is increasing pork supply in all of the EU and pushing down prices.

USA


U.S. September corn closed Friday at $5.08 a bushel, down for September, being at $6.56 in early May. The $5.08 is the lowest price since early April. We expect to see some areas in the USA to be below $5.00 a bushel very soon. China hasn’t bought significant corn amounts since May. If major liquidation in swine is ongoing in China they won’t need as much corn. USDA projection of 14% decrease in China hog inventory would be about 90 million fewer hogs and a lot less corn needed.

Another Interesting Week 
In the World of Hog Production

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Pork Commentary, August 30th, 2021
Jim Long, President-CEO, Genesus Inc.

Our Observations:

U.S. hog slaughter last week 2,444,000 – a year ago 2,653,000. Down 8% year-over-year. USDA projected 2% year-over-year decline in June 1st USDA Hogs and Pigs Report. U.S. slaughter since the first of July down over 8%.


U.S. hog slaughter down year-over-year as well as slaughter weights; i.e. Iowa – S Minnesota averaging 276.9 lbs. – a year ago 279 lbs. Certainly appears hogs are not backed up. We don’t believe anyone is hanging onto hogs going into the fall with traditionally lower prices.


USDA carcass cut-out closed Friday at $116.59 reflecting continued strong pork demand. Lean Hog Prices National Base Lean Hogs 53-54% $103.47.


Appears to us slaughter hog numbers will continue to be significantly below 2020 for the rest of the year. Even lean hog futures traders have got October hogs over 90¢. The combination of the crush financial debacle of 2020 and PRRS 144 is cutting hog numbers.


We also are wondering if hog numbers are being affected significantly by sow mortality of 17% plus in many large production systems. With mortality at that level, we see a decreased voluntary culling of sows. Sows that in the past would have been culled are kept in production in an attempt to maintain sow inventory. We also expect high sow mortality and involuntary culling is leading to sow herd inventories lower than the target, leading to fewer pigs being produced than you would expect from many sow units.


The lower numbers of slaughter are also being caused by labor issues. Many farms are understaffed which affects productivity. Some farms are half staffed. No way that leads to more hogs. It also discourages expansion. We expect labor issues in sow units are cutting production by 2-5%.

China

Below, from a reader in China (we took out company names but all with several 100,000 sows)

  • Company X is in very dire financial and legal status and not expected to survive.
  • Company Y cannot pay its bills and borrowing from its suppliers. The suppliers tells us that they themselves can’t stand much more of it.
  • Some large outfits have recently changed leadership as the CEO and CFO etc. are resigning.

China’s Hog Industry currently is losing big money with prices below cost of production and continued issues with African Swine Fever. The price of corn last week was $9.75 U.S. bushel, the lowest this year. China has forward bought little corn from USA since May. We expect China’s swine industry losing minimum $400-500 million U.S. a week at current price levels is causing significant liquidation. Don’t need corn to feed pigs that don’t exist.

CFAP 1 Top-Up

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Pork Commentary, August 23rd, 2021
Jim Long, President-CEO, Genesus Inc.

As of August 15, 2021, USDA website shows payments of CFAP 1 Total Disbursed.

Cattle$4.37 billion
Milk$1.79 billion
Corn$1.78 billion
Hogs$ 624 million

Cattle, Milk, Corn, have all been paid the USDA promised CFAP 1 top-up. The hog industry languishes as a second-class citizen having not been paid top-up. The CFAP 1 top-up program was put in place to compensate, re USDA CFAP 1 website, “for producers of agricultural commodities marketed in 2020 who faced market disruptions due to Covid-19.” The CFAP 1 top-up was promised in January. As you see huge payments have been paid to Cattle. Milk and Corn as promised.

The CFAP 1 top-up was to match first CFAP 1 payments. It appears to us $624 million is the government USDA payment owing to producers. A lot of money that this industry could use to backfill the hole created by Covid crisis and market collapse in 2020 just as Cattle, Milk, and Corn received. You know what you got CFAP 1, best you fight for it.

We continue to wonder why NPPC Bureaucrats are not fully engaged to get the $624 million promised and owed. Obviously, the Cattle, Milk, and Corn groups have done their job to look after their industry. What can be more important than getting $624 million for your industry? Time to clean house at NPPC, the leadership is not getting the results of other industry groups. Hopefully, NPPC directors will take charge and stop the inmates from running the asylum. New energy, new direction, new ideas, and tangible results are the only option if we are going to have a body that represents, defends, and grows or industry.

Last week we highlighted a letter the Senators of Iowa and Minnesota sent asking USDA Secretary Vilsack where is the CFAP 1 top-up for Swine. If we want to get the money, we all need to engage continually Senators, Congressmen, and Secretary Vilsack. Call/ email over and over. They all need to see a concentrated effort of our industry saying “Where is the promised money you paid Cattle, Milk, and Corn, why not Hogs?” We are on our own, NPPC is MIA. It’s $624 million. Let’s get at it. Covid-19 smashed us as much if not more than the other commodities. The CFAP 1 top-up promise made should be a promise kept.

Other Observations 

Marketed Hogs 

July U.S. total commercial hog slaughter was 9.790 million, down from last year 11.224 million. The 13% decline compares to the year-over-year decrease of 2% that USDA projected. Last week the U.S. marketed 2.452 million, a year ago 2.625 million (-6.5%). The USDA June 1st inventory report was wrong. This overestimation of inventory hurts producers as it drives down lean hog futures by creating the perception of more supply than in reality.

Olymel Plant (Quebec) Strike

The strike at Olymel plant in Quebec continues as a Union vote rejected the company offer last week. The Valley–Junction plant which handles 37,000 market hogs a week has been on strike since April. The closure of the plant has put huge stress on Quebec and Ontario producers who have contracts to supply hogs, as they are forced to find other homes for their hogs. The Union wants a raise of 50% over three years.

The Olymel plant closing is leading to more small pigs and market hogs being sent to USA. Market hogs to USA the latest week data shows plus 14,000 year over year. Small pig exports the latest week plus 20,000 (+24%) year over year. The strike is not only a dilemma for producers but for Olymel as the sudden drop of pork supply creates issues with customers in retail, foodservice, and exports. Some of these customers will be supplied by U.S. packers grabbing customers with the Canadian pigs. When you lose a customer always a challenge to get back.

Total Federal inspected hog slaughter in Canada was -14% in the latest week year over year (-58,000). A real sign of the crisis the Olymel strike is putting on the Canadian hog industry.

China’s Pork Industry in Red

China hog slaughter price continues to run around 15.56 RMB kg ($1,09 U.S. liveweight a lb). A price below China’s average cost of production ($11.00 bushel corn). The current China cash weaned pig price is 260 RMB ($40 U.S.), cost of production is $60 plus. 15 kg (33 lbs feeders) 350 RMB ($53 U.S.). In January 15 kg feeders were near $300. A huge difference.

China’s pork industry is currently in red, losing lots. One of their largest publicly traded owned swine companies lost $500 million U.S. in the first half of 2021. Most estimates of loss per head of industry are at $35-$50 per head. 10-12 million heads per week marketed, a range of $350-$600 million a week loss in the industry. Not exactly conducive to continued expansion. We believe China is net liquidating now due to financial losses and continued ASF challenges. This liquidation continues to put more pork on the market and driving down prices. Just a matter of time when the dog hits the end of the chain and China hog prices jump. The billion-dollar question “When is that?”

Sow Value

A year ago, U.S. heavy sows were in the 25¢-30¢ lb. Last week sows over 500 lbs. we’re averaging 92¢ lb. with some bringing a $1.00 lb. Nice ring to it, 500 lbs. x $1.00 lb. = $500, $300 plus more than a year ago. Certainly, time to get rid of old sows and replace with gilts. As good as a sow revenue – gilt cost spread ever.

It also highlights the dilemma of dead sows. Every sow that dies costs you big money. Average industry sow mortality on databases is 14%, which means half industry is over 14% with many 17%-20%. It’s amazing our industry tolerates the failure of the Genetics that give these results. Prolapses, lames, fighting, feet structure, milked down in lactation, all factors eroding not only the loss sow value but dead sows don’t produce pigs. If you got sow mortality over 14% it’s your genetics, not your management. Time for a change.

Research in a frenzy over feeding

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By Geoff Geddes

Editor’s note: The following piece was written for Swine Innovation Porc (SIP). For more information, contact Leslie Walsh at lwalsh@swineinnovationporc.ca.

Research supported by Canadian pork producer organizations, directed by Swine Innovation Porc (SIP), continues to investigate ways to lower feed costs. Photo submitted by Christopher Gross.

If you think that feed costs are overrated, you’re not the one paying the bill.

As piglet feeding and its impact weigh heavily on producers’ minds, science is seeking ways to make your feed dollar go further. Part of that effort involves highly relevant projects such as, ‘Towards a new feeding approach of neonatal and weanling piglets for optimizing nutritional status, immunity and microbiota, and minimizing the use of antibiotics.’

“A major focus of the project is exploring a range of approaches for maximizing the growth and health of piglets during lactation and in the pre-weaning and post-weaning periods,” said Martin Lessard, former Research Scientist, Sherbrooke Research and Development Centre (SRDC), Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC). Lessard was a co-leader of the project with Dr. Frédéric Guay, Professor, Department of Animal Science, Laval University. After Lessard’s retirement, the project was handed over to Dominic Poulin-Laprade, a newly hired Research Scientist at SRDC-AAFC who works on pig gut microbiomes and immune systems, along with developing solutions to antimicrobial resistance in the agricultural sector.  

As part of this particular project, researchers will also evaluate the potential of various feeding strategies. Specifically, they will examine bovine colostrum, naked oat, medium-chain fatty acids and yeast extracts capable of optimizing gut health through their complementary influences on microbiota and immunity.

Ideas to chew on

Improving robustness and disease resistance equals healthier pigs and fewer expenses

Lessard, and now Poulin-Laprade, and Guay hope to develop feeding strategies that will improve piglets’ robustness and resistance to infections while limiting antibiotic use – something that is now a top industry priority. If all goes as planned, they will eventually transfer ready-to-adopt practices to commercial swine producers based on scientific foundations and scaled-up demonstrations.

“The first thing we are doing for the project is testing the different feeding approaches side-by-side,” said Lessard. “We will look at colostrum alone, medium-chain fatty acids alone, a control group with neither product, one group using both products and a final group employing antibiotics.”

That final group is especially critical for industry, as the limiting of antibiotics in weaning feed means producers must find ways to compensate for the loss of that option and devise other ways of achieving those beneficial effects.

“We have just finished an experiment for testing the potential of medium-chain fatty acids, yeast extract and bovine colostrum to improve gut health by modulating host-microbiome interactions and gut immune response,” said Lessard. “Dr. Guay is now doing some other work to determine whether naked oats can improve feed intake before and after weaning, and thus intestinal physiology, including the integrity of the intestinal mucosa. He is also studying the possible role of a colostrum supplement in early lactation on post-weaning feed intake and intestinal health.”

Once they arrive at the ideal feeding conditions, researchers will repeat the experiment with medium-chain fatty acids and bovine colostrum to determine which is more effective in preventing infections. As well, they will compare results when piglets are exposed to creep feeding versus when such feeding is absent. They also plan to further scrutinize the microbiome of the animals in their study and its impact on digestibility and performance.

As is often the case with research, this project is guided in part by findings in previous studies and partly by the gaps in past research that need to be filled.

“Based on work in prior projects, it is clear that different ingredients can act on intestinal immunity, physiology and microbiota,” said Lessard. “However, few studies have investigated the combined effect of different ingredients that can act in a complementary fashion on the intestinal health of weaned piglets.”

In addition, few studies have been aimed at evaluating the effect of the composition of creep feed on pig health during the pre-and post-weaning periods.

“In the particular context of hyperprolificity, the study of pre-weaning feeding to optimize immune response, intestinal microbiota colonization and the growth of the piglets – mainly low weight – is relevant. Specifically, we want to examine this feeding under the current conditions of reduced antibiotic use and high zinc concentrations in post-weaning diets.”

According to Lessard, it is also clear that new feeding approaches with the potential to modulate gut health and piglet robustness from birth to post-weaning need to be developed and warrant closer inspection.

Clearly, the multi-pronged nature of this project promises a range of benefits for producers, with the implications for antibiotic use being one of the most notable.

Reducing antimicrobial use has wide-reaching benefits

Aside from keeping costs under control, reducing antimicrobial use is an important part of maintaining public trust in the Canadian hog industry.

“Through this study, we will continue to reduce the amount of antibiotics in feed, which will have a direct impact on the development of antibiotic-resistant bacteria,” said Lessard. “Using the products we are looking at here is more expensive than antibiotics, but the earlier you start with them, the better your chances of promoting long-term effects that will boost your bottom line. If pigs do well during those first six weeks of life, the benefits may be much greater than we realize right now.”

Cost is clearly a consideration for producers, and while the researchers do not yet have all the answers, they are exploring options for minimizing expenses. With bovine colostrum currently the costliest option for piglets, can the amount used be reduced from five per cent of the diet to two per cent or even one per cent by using other products that spark similar effects? Are prebiotics, nutraceuticals (pharmaceutical alternatives which claim physiological benefits) and other functional feeds a viable alternative? On their own, prebiotics and nutraceuticals may not be the most effective additive during the weaning period, but perhaps they could be added to bovine colostrum to increase the beneficial effects.

If the road to results is paved by asking the right questions, these researchers are well on their way.

Ontario Pork: 75 years of progress and resilience

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By Stacey Ash

Editor’s note: Stacey Ash is Manager of Communications and Consumer Marketing at Ontario Pork. She can be contacted at stacey.ash@ontariopork.on.ca.

To mark the occasion of Ontario Pork’s 75th anniversary, a special logo was created to be used as a prominent visual reminder this year.

In 2021, Ontario Pork celebrates 75 years of serving and representing pork producers in the province. Celebrating such an important milestone has some challenges, with pandemic restrictions still limiting social gatherings, but the organization continues to mark the occasion in various ways, with plans for a more formal celebration when we can safely gather again.

A special anniversary section was incorporated into Ontario Pork’s Corporate Profile, including interviews with multi-generational farm families, insights provided by international workers growing their career in the Canadian pork industry and forward-looking insights from new members of the industry. A 75th-anniversary logo brings the celebration to Ontario Pork’s websites and producer-facing social media accounts.

Photos from the archives are being shared online at ontariopork.on.ca/history, as well as on social media, using the hashtag #OntarioPork75. Producers and industry partners are encouraged to join this trip down memory lane with contributions from their own photo albums or pork memorabilia collections.

There’s more to come, with planned contests, giveaways and celebrations in the months ahead.

Ontario Pork – looking back

Even in the early days, Ontario Pork positioned itself to proudly showcase the work of producers (and hosted free ham draws) to reinforce consumer confidence.

On April 21, 1946, the offices of the Ontario Hog Producers’ Board opened in Toronto.

Farmers looked forward from the scarcity of the Second World War to a collaborative model where elected members would represent their best interests. Charles McInnis was a driving force behind the formation of the marketing board and served as president until 1961, alongside Norman McLeod, the board’s first chair.

At the time, close to 120,000 farms in Ontario reported having hogs, with an average of about 16 hogs per farm, and producers agreed to pay $0.02 per hog for the support of a central marketing organization.

It was not always easy. The 1950s saw the beginnings of central selling, first with United Livestock Sales, and later through the Ontario Hog Producers’ Cooperative, with 28 assembly yards operating across the province. The decade also saw escalating tensions between producers, processors and transporters, who did not all agree on the central approach to selling hogs.

A worker records hog marketing information by region on a chalkboard at the Ontario Pork head office.

The 1960s began with a swell of optimism around plans for the Farmers Allied Meat Enterprises (FAME) processing co-operative. At the Ontario Hog Marketing Board, advances were being made in hog selling. A new teletype machine at the head office listed lots of animals to be sold at assembly yards, and a new index grading system came into effect.

Efforts to promote pork to the public – and grow domestic sales – picked up steam in the 1970s, as the Ontario Hog Producers’ Marketing Board was renamed the Ontario Pork Producers’ Marketing Board. Ontario Pork opened two Toronto restaurants – ‘The Pork Place’ on King Street West, and the ‘Pork Pickins’ fast food outlet. The popular, and still quoted, ‘Put Pork on Your Fork’ campaign was in full swing by the end of the decade.

The 1980s were a time of political turmoil, as trade disputes with the U.S. saw heavy countervail duties imposed on fresh, frozen and chilled pork from Canada. Strong political advocacy on the provincial and national fronts helped see those duties eliminated in 1991. The focus at Ontario Pork turned to organizational review, beginning with the privatization of all Ontario Pork assembly yards. Debates and studies related to organizational review lasted well into the new millennium, leading to the end of single-desk selling in 2010.

A worker trims fat from a loin at the producer-owned Conestoga plant in Breslau – just outside of Kitchener.

Those years also saw significant change on the processing front, with Conestoga Meat Packers beginning operations near Breslau in 1982. In 1994, 120 farms came together to create Progressive Pork Producers: a farmer-led co-operative to run Conestoga Meats.

Swine research became a cornerstone of Ontario Pork’s mandate, with one project in particular garnering a great deal of attention in the early 2000s: Enviropig. Genetically engineered to reduce phosphate excretion, the pig developed at the University of Guelph showed great promise to address environmental concerns but ultimately could not overcome public distaste for genetic modifications.

Community outreach has long been a fixture of Ontario Pork’s consumer marketing strategy.

In 2014, Ontario Pork helped the industry navigate two major crises: with the collapse of Quality Meats in Toronto, and export disruptions following the arrival of porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED) in Canada. Working with government, Ontario Pork secured funding to help restore consumer confidence and boost sales through the creation of a retail branding program.

Through massive demographic shifts, operational changes, political battles, trade issues, disease outbreaks and evolving public expectations, one thing has remained constant: Ontario Pork’s steadfast commitment to serving and supporting its members.

Ontario Pork today – and tomorrow

Times change, but Ontario Pork’s commitment to the industry’s evolving needs remains the same.

Today, 75 years after the organization first opened its doors, a global pandemic, which brought shortages and supply chain disruptions, appears to be nearing its end. Support from our provincial government partners is strong, including the creation of new legislation to better protect farms targeted by those who would seek to end the industry. 

What do the next 75 years look like? Pork producers in Ontario have earned a reputation for resilience and perseverance. This comes from the hard work and commitment demonstrated by producers, Ontario Pork board members and staff, and industry stakeholders. Those up-and-coming in the industry are continuing their commitment to environmental stewardship, along with increased collaboration and partnership within industry and government to ensure the further growth of the sector for future generations, so that they can carry on the legacy of providing a high-quality product for consumers.

While the number of producers is only a fraction of what it was in the beginning, appetite for Ontario-raised pork now continues to grow at home and overseas, and Ontario Pork ensures the voice of producers is heard as loudly today as it was in 1946. Ontario Pork, and the producers it represents, can look forward with confidence to the next 75 years.