By Janet Krayden

Editor’s note: Janet Krayden is CEO, Crystal Clear Communications. She can be contacted at ‘janet@mushrooms.ca.’

Canadian agriculture and agri-food consistently punch above their weight. Agriculture and agri-food contribute $111 billion per year – more than $30 million per day – to the Canadian economy, or over six per cent of our GDP. However, there are still more than 16,000 job vacancies on Canadian farms, and this labour crisis is resulting in avoidable financial strain.

With that considered, you would think that smoothing out the regulatory red tape – especially on access to labour for farmers – should be highest priority for federal and provincial governments when the shortage is both critical and chronic, proven with many years of data and evidence. When COVID-19 challenged supply chains, action was taken to secure our food supply, but this level of urgency and priority for the sector appears to have come to an end.

Producers and workers need new solutions

Agriculture is theoretically prioritized in the immigration regulations, but it continues to be squeezed by on all sides. Agriculture and agri-food businesses, and their workers, are getting caught in immigration dragnet of restrictive changes that will reduce Canadian production and processing capacity now and in the future, if not reversed. 

Across the country, for years, agriculture agri-food businesses have been vocal about the reality of their workforces: when Canadians do not apply for jobs, programs are needed to support permanent residency for workers, not just the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP). Even getting permits approved under the TFWP Agriculture Stream is an increasing struggle. 

The federal Agri-Food Immigration Pilot program was launched in 2020 in response to COVID-19 supply chain challenges in the sector. To the detriment and dismay of the sector, it closed to new applications in May 2025 after reaching the 1,010-maximum permanent resident threshold as defined by the federal government’s 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan. To that point, the program supported more than 4,500 workers and their family members, which included the extension of open work permits to spouses of Agriculture Stream workers.

Some of the changes for other immigration programs are really needed. Nearly four million international students were allowed to come into Canada between 2020 and 2024. Over the same time, the International Mobility Program had 2.5 million entrants. Unlike the TFWP, the International Mobility Program does not require Labour Market Impact Assessments (LMIAs), making it easier for employers. Not to mention, LMIA housing guidelines for the TFWP Agriculture Stream currently require employers to retain empty housing when workers choose to live on their own off-farm, which is wasteful and costly.

The TFWP had a target of bring in 82,000 workers in 2025, but this has been cut down to 60,000 total, with the Agriculture Stream likely included in that amount with all other sectors, along with construction and meat processing. This is very concerning, because the Agriculture Stream has about 40,000 workers coming in every year and it continues to grow at a slow and gradual rate, due to attrition of retiring farmers and farm workers. Will more permits be refused under the Agriculture Steam, even for those already working on Canadian farms?

Additional hiccups under the Agriculture Stream include the downgrading of the livestock specialist or technician category from higher-skilled to lower-skilled. This cuts off immigration access through the Provincial Nominee Program and Express Entry programs that generally only prioritize or accept the occupations classified as higher-skilled. This also affects the General Farm Worker wage within the federal Job Bank, which could increase by $4 per hour or more in some provinces, complicating an already difficult situation.

Industry advocacy remains important

Farmers and their organizations need to continue speaking up for their access to labour with new permanent solutions. Even under the TFWP, caps under the Agriculture Stream need to be kept separate from the Seasonal Agriculture Worker Program.

If action isn’t taken, this will only worsen, and our sector will continue to be squeezed out of these programs. The result will be a drastic reduction in production, with workers being sent home or not able to fill existing and new job vacancies. As a consequence, Canada may become more like the U.S., with an underground farm workforce, something no-one – including Ottawa – should want to see.

If agriculture and agri-food can come together on labour, there is still time to turn this ship around to prioritize our sector again through effective programs that support us when Canadians alone cannot fill the needed roles.

Editor’s note: Todd Thurman is Founder & CEO, Swine Insights International. He can be contacted at ‘todd@swineinsights.com.’

As ‘Trade War II’ rages on and global commerce is re-shuffled, the North American trade bloc stands out as one of our most powerful collective assets (Figure 1). The geographic proximity and characteristics of Canada, the U.S. and Mexico make this union ideal for creating secure, efficient and resilient supply chains. This is true across industries but especially food and agriculture.

As an American who does business internationally, I believe strengthening this relationship should have been our number-one geopolitical and economic priority. It is both surprising and disappointing that it has instead become a flashpoint in global tensions.

Integration, cooperation have been a historical benefit

For decades, the North American pork industry has been bolstered by cross-border integration and cooperation. The industry has operated as a continental system: live hogs flow south for finishing, American feed grains move north and finished pork products flow both ways. It’s a model of efficiency that has served us all well.

The recent imposition of steep U.S. tariffs and Canada’s retaliatory measures contradict the strategic goal of strengthening this union. I’ve been delaying my writing of this article in the hope I could share more encouraging news of an announced deal. As of writing, however, the August deadline imposed by the Trump administration has expired, and Canada is facing 35 per cent tariffs – an increase from the 25 per cent tariffs on all imports not covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), also known as the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). Additional responses by Canada are being discussed, but nothing concrete has emerged.

Fortunately, most pork industry impacts have, so far, been limited. Pork and live pig exports from Canada to the U.S. are included in the CUSMA compliance exemption, provided paperwork is in order. In fact, the Bank of Canada estimates 95 per cent of all Canadian exports to the U.S. are exempt. While some U.S. pork products are technically included in the retaliatory Canadian tariffs imposed in March, the actual impact has been minimal. Slight reductions have been noted in U.S. pork exports to Canada in recent months but most can be attributed to non-tariff related issues. Still, the uncertainty is troubling, and the broader issues may impact input costs for producers and affect pork demand. Producers on both sides of the border worry that escalation could drag pork directly into the fray.

If live pigs and pork were included in the current tariff regime, the effects would be serious. The pipeline of more than six million Canadian feeder pigs moving south annually cannot simply be turned off. U.S. finishers depend on them, so demand tends to be steady. Costly workarounds would likely limit the impact on volume in the short term, but ultimately, Canadian producers would be forced to offer steep discounts, straining margins to a degree that might become unsustainable.

Meat, a more substitutable commodity, would experience a more rapid and direct impact. Traders, unwilling to absorb a 25 to 35 per cent price hike, would force product to be diverted into other global markets or onto the domestic market. Considering the U.S. and Canadian industries are heavily export-dependent – 26 per cent and 70 per cent of pigs and pork produced leave each country, respectively – this would be a massive problem for both. North American trade represents a significant proportion of total exports. Between 2018 and 2022, Canadian exports to the U.S. averaged 35 per cent by value, and U.S. exports to Canada were 15 per cent (Figure 2).

Our industry is now at a crossroads. What happens next depends mostly on whether this trade dispute ends up being a brief spat or a permanent change in the North American trade climate. By looking at multiple scenarios and considering the implications, two possible, simplified outcomes stand out.

Scenario 1: Quick Resolution

In this optimistic scenario, a political compromise is reached within the next three to six months, tariffs are rescinded, the integrated system snaps back quickly, and the pork industry is never directly dragged into the conflict. Canadian live pig exports continue, and Canadian and U.S. pork quickly regain traditional share of the respective markets. Exactly what the re-adjustment would look like obviously depends on the terms of the agreement, but something resembling a return to the status quo is likely.

Crucially, the incentive to make costly, long-term investments in redundant capacity – such as building new packing plants in Canada – fades in this scenario. The episode would serve as a lesson in our mutual dependence, but it would ultimately reaffirm the logic and efficiency of our continental model. It is important to acknowledge, however, that damage has already been done to the relationship between Canada and the U.S., and trust has eroded; it will take time to repair that damage.

Scenario 2: Prolonged Stalemate

This is a more pessimistic but plausible scenario where tariffs persist for the next three to five years and pork is directly or indirectly included, forcing permanent adaptations. Some models – like the one developed by agricultural economist Sebastien Pouliot – suggest Canadian feeder pig exports to the U.S. could plummet by 36 per cent, and slaughter hog exports would virtually disappear in the face of 25 per cent tariffs.

For Canadian producers, this path is fraught with difficulty. It means a painful contraction of the industry or an aggressive, high-stakes pivot to expand slaughter capacity and find new overseas markets. While it’s true the pain would be greater for Canada, this is not a win for the U.S. It forces the American industry into a slow and expensive process of expanding its own sow herd to replace the reliable Canadian pig supply. Alternatively, the U.S. might choose to simply cut overall production, leading to an oversupply of shackle and finishing space, thereby straining packer margins and the well-established contract production system.

This leads not to victory for one side, but to a fundamental reconfiguration into two less efficient, more siloed national systems. Furthermore, it is critical to understand that this internal fragmentation would be happening at the worst possible time. Our analysis forecasts rather weak global pork demand over the coming decades, driven by a combination of demographic and economic headwinds that are particularly challenging for pork.

East Asia provides perhaps the clearest example. For example, China has been a primary engine of global pork import demand for years, but that era is likely over. With its rapidly improving domestic production efficiency and significant demographic challenges like population aging and decline, China cannot be relied upon for future growth. Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong – all major pork importers – face similar challenges. Of the top-10 pork importers in 2024, four are expected to lose population in the next quarter-century (Figure 3). Collectively, the group will lose almost four per cent of its population, which will also continue to age rapidly.

To replace weakening demand elsewhere, many industries will look to the last remaining areas of rapid population growth – Africa and parts of the Middle East – which will add around one billion people altogether in the next 25 years. This creates an opportunity for massive market growth if economic stability and governance goals can be achieved (a big if), but 52 per cent of this population growth is likely to be Muslim: an obvious problem for the pork industry.

So, in a cruel twist of fate, many of the same areas experiencing the greatest demographic challenges are also the areas with the highest levels of pork imports and the areas with the most potential growth are a challenge for the pork industry.

Friends, not foes

The implications of the current trade dispute are stark: with global demand slowing overall and reversing in key markets, the export market will become fiercely competitive. A unified Canada-U.S. pork industry – leveraging its scale, efficiency and complementary strengths with Mexico – is far more competitive on the world stage than any of us can be alone. A self-inflicted weakening of our partnership now is a grave strategic error that undermines our collective ability to compete in the challenging decades ahead.

This dispute is more than a line item on a balance sheet; it is causing financial pain, impacting real people and businesses. If it spreads, it threatens to permanently fragment our efficient North American system and dangerously weaken our collective strength right when global competition is set to intensify.

The choice before our leaders is clear: continue a self-defeating internal conflict or restore the partnership that provides our single greatest advantage in global trade. The challenges ahead are global in scale and will require our absolute best. Our integrated North American pork and broader agriculture system gives us an edge no other region can easily replicate. Restoring that partnership and focusing our collective energy on winning in a tougher global market is not just the best option, it is the only one that makes strategic sense.

By Zhiqi Zhou

Editor’s note: Zhiqi Zhou is a communications and journalism intern with the Canadian Pork Council (CPC). For more information, contact Chloe Belchamber, Manager, Operations and PPRA, CPC at ‘belchamber@cpc-ccp.com.’

The Canadian pork industry is a vital part of the national economy and a global leader in producing safe, high-quality and sustainable food. At the heart of many of the sector’s advancements is the Pork Promotion and Research Agency (PPRA): a federally legislated body that plays a behind-the-scenes yet crucial role in supporting the industry’s growth.

Chloe Belchamber, Manager of Operations and PPRA, Canadian Pork Council (CPC) spoke about the agency’s work, highlighting how it fuels innovation, supports marketing efforts, collaborates across sectors and faces evolving challenges with a forward-looking approach.

“Rather than focusing on branded campaigns, the agency supports generic pork research and promotional efforts that benefit the entire sector,” said Belchamber. “The PPRA is intended to fuel innovation, support marketing efforts, and lead to collaboration across sectors while facing evolving challenges with a forward-looking approach.”

The PPRA was established under the Farm Products Agencies Act, with a mandate to promote the production and marketing of hogs and pork products across interprovincial, export and import trade. The PPRA’s activities are funded through an import levy system. This levy – equal to the domestic check-off amount – is applied to all imported hogs, pork and pork products. The information used to calculate the levy comes from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA), and invoicing is handled on the PPRA’s behalf by the Canadian Beef Check-Off Agency, which brings more than 15 years of experience in levy collection. Levy funds are re-invested into strategic initiatives aimed at making the Canadian pork industry more competitive and sustainable.

“By complying with World Trade Organization regulations and principles of national treatment, the agency’s model ensures fairness between imported and domestic products,” said Belchamber. “A unique aspect of the PPRA’s work is that its promotional and research materials are made available to all industry players – producers, importers and processors alike.”

This inclusive approach encourages everyone to contribute to strengthening pork’s position in the marketplace and ensures Canadian pork continues to be trusted, innovative and efficient on both the domestic and global stages.

Marketing and research benefit

A major pillar of the PPRA’s mission is supporting research that drives improvements in production practices, environmental sustainability and animal welfare. Research activities are carried out through a service provider agreement with Swine Innovation Porc (SIP).

SIP’s investments in science are already producing tangible results. For instance, current projects include strategies to optimize phosphorus and nitrogen utilization and studies on replacing antimicrobials in weaned piglets. SIP also supports research into animal welfare, including transitional funding for a dedicated Animal Welfare Chair. All these projects fall under a newly launched framework that facilitates knowledge transfer and ensures that research findings are shared directly with producers.

The PPRA, meanwhile, plays an active role in consumer education and marketing. Through its partnership with Canada Pork, the agency runs broad-reaching marketing campaigns to promote pork’s value without highlighting any specific brand. One such campaign, ‘Pork, Eh!’ uses multiple social media platforms to showcase pork’s nutritional benefits, versatility and cooking ideas for consumers.

In a sector as interconnected as agriculture, collaboration is essential, and the PPRA is no exception. The agency works directly with producers and processors to disseminate research findings and marketing tools that can be adapted to suit individual needs. It also partners with key government agencies, including AAFC and CBSA, to facilitate levy collection and ensure regulatory compliance. Oversight is provided by the Farm Products Council of Canada.

“Close relationships with organizations such as Canada Pork and SIP ensure that marketing and research programs remain aligned with industry needs and priorities,” said Belchamber. “These partnerships allow the PPRA to deliver meaningful results while avoiding duplicating efforts.”

Challenges remain despite advantages

Despite its many successes, the PPRA and the Canadian pork industry face significant challenges. Chief among them is maintaining competitiveness in both domestic and international markets. This requires constant innovation, high production standards and the ability to respond to changing consumer demands. Increasingly, Canadian consumers are prioritizing health, sustainability and ethical practices, which are driving their choices. This shift places pressure on the Canadian pork industry to remain transparent at all stages of the value chain, while continuing to deliver high-quality products.

At the same time, regulatory changes – whether they involve trade agreements, environmental policies or animal health standards – can significantly impact the industry. Adapting to these changes requires agility, cooperation and often new investments in compliance and innovation.

Potential foreign animal disease outbreaks are another challenge that should not be underestimated. If African Swine Fever (ASF) or Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) were to be discovered in Canada, it could devastate pork production and processing by shutting down access to export markets, triggering major backlogs of domestic pigs and pork that would ultimately need to be absorbed by the Canadian consumer market. For the PPRA, this would mean a dramatic loss of revenue, since the agency relies on imports to generate funding. Without those imports, its ability to support vital research and promotional work could be severely limited. Still, Belchamber remains optimistic.

“Through careful planning, strong partnerships and a focus on shared benefits, the PPRA continues to provide crucial support to one of Canada’s most important agricultural sectors,” said Belchamber. “By investing in generic, science-based promotion and research, the agency is helping producers not just adapt to change, but lead the way in shaping a resilient, innovative future for Canadian pork.”