Editor’s note: Todd Thurman is Founder & CEO, Swine Insights International. He can be contacted at ‘todd@swineinsights.com.’

As ‘Trade War II’ rages on and global commerce is re-shuffled, the North American trade bloc stands out as one of our most powerful collective assets (Figure 1). The geographic proximity and characteristics of Canada, the U.S. and Mexico make this union ideal for creating secure, efficient and resilient supply chains. This is true across industries but especially food and agriculture.

As an American who does business internationally, I believe strengthening this relationship should have been our number-one geopolitical and economic priority. It is both surprising and disappointing that it has instead become a flashpoint in global tensions.

Integration, cooperation have been a historical benefit

For decades, the North American pork industry has been bolstered by cross-border integration and cooperation. The industry has operated as a continental system: live hogs flow south for finishing, American feed grains move north and finished pork products flow both ways. It’s a model of efficiency that has served us all well.

The recent imposition of steep U.S. tariffs and Canada’s retaliatory measures contradict the strategic goal of strengthening this union. I’ve been delaying my writing of this article in the hope I could share more encouraging news of an announced deal. As of writing, however, the August deadline imposed by the Trump administration has expired, and Canada is facing 35 per cent tariffs – an increase from the 25 per cent tariffs on all imports not covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), also known as the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA). Additional responses by Canada are being discussed, but nothing concrete has emerged.

Fortunately, most pork industry impacts have, so far, been limited. Pork and live pig exports from Canada to the U.S. are included in the CUSMA compliance exemption, provided paperwork is in order. In fact, the Bank of Canada estimates 95 per cent of all Canadian exports to the U.S. are exempt. While some U.S. pork products are technically included in the retaliatory Canadian tariffs imposed in March, the actual impact has been minimal. Slight reductions have been noted in U.S. pork exports to Canada in recent months but most can be attributed to non-tariff related issues. Still, the uncertainty is troubling, and the broader issues may impact input costs for producers and affect pork demand. Producers on both sides of the border worry that escalation could drag pork directly into the fray.

If live pigs and pork were included in the current tariff regime, the effects would be serious. The pipeline of more than six million Canadian feeder pigs moving south annually cannot simply be turned off. U.S. finishers depend on them, so demand tends to be steady. Costly workarounds would likely limit the impact on volume in the short term, but ultimately, Canadian producers would be forced to offer steep discounts, straining margins to a degree that might become unsustainable.

Meat, a more substitutable commodity, would experience a more rapid and direct impact. Traders, unwilling to absorb a 25 to 35 per cent price hike, would force product to be diverted into other global markets or onto the domestic market. Considering the U.S. and Canadian industries are heavily export-dependent – 26 per cent and 70 per cent of pigs and pork produced leave each country, respectively – this would be a massive problem for both. North American trade represents a significant proportion of total exports. Between 2018 and 2022, Canadian exports to the U.S. averaged 35 per cent by value, and U.S. exports to Canada were 15 per cent (Figure 2).

Our industry is now at a crossroads. What happens next depends mostly on whether this trade dispute ends up being a brief spat or a permanent change in the North American trade climate. By looking at multiple scenarios and considering the implications, two possible, simplified outcomes stand out.

Scenario 1: Quick Resolution

In this optimistic scenario, a political compromise is reached within the next three to six months, tariffs are rescinded, the integrated system snaps back quickly, and the pork industry is never directly dragged into the conflict. Canadian live pig exports continue, and Canadian and U.S. pork quickly regain traditional share of the respective markets. Exactly what the re-adjustment would look like obviously depends on the terms of the agreement, but something resembling a return to the status quo is likely.

Crucially, the incentive to make costly, long-term investments in redundant capacity – such as building new packing plants in Canada – fades in this scenario. The episode would serve as a lesson in our mutual dependence, but it would ultimately reaffirm the logic and efficiency of our continental model. It is important to acknowledge, however, that damage has already been done to the relationship between Canada and the U.S., and trust has eroded; it will take time to repair that damage.

Scenario 2: Prolonged Stalemate

This is a more pessimistic but plausible scenario where tariffs persist for the next three to five years and pork is directly or indirectly included, forcing permanent adaptations. Some models – like the one developed by agricultural economist Sebastien Pouliot – suggest Canadian feeder pig exports to the U.S. could plummet by 36 per cent, and slaughter hog exports would virtually disappear in the face of 25 per cent tariffs.

For Canadian producers, this path is fraught with difficulty. It means a painful contraction of the industry or an aggressive, high-stakes pivot to expand slaughter capacity and find new overseas markets. While it’s true the pain would be greater for Canada, this is not a win for the U.S. It forces the American industry into a slow and expensive process of expanding its own sow herd to replace the reliable Canadian pig supply. Alternatively, the U.S. might choose to simply cut overall production, leading to an oversupply of shackle and finishing space, thereby straining packer margins and the well-established contract production system.

This leads not to victory for one side, but to a fundamental reconfiguration into two less efficient, more siloed national systems. Furthermore, it is critical to understand that this internal fragmentation would be happening at the worst possible time. Our analysis forecasts rather weak global pork demand over the coming decades, driven by a combination of demographic and economic headwinds that are particularly challenging for pork.

East Asia provides perhaps the clearest example. For example, China has been a primary engine of global pork import demand for years, but that era is likely over. With its rapidly improving domestic production efficiency and significant demographic challenges like population aging and decline, China cannot be relied upon for future growth. Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong – all major pork importers – face similar challenges. Of the top-10 pork importers in 2024, four are expected to lose population in the next quarter-century (Figure 3). Collectively, the group will lose almost four per cent of its population, which will also continue to age rapidly.

To replace weakening demand elsewhere, many industries will look to the last remaining areas of rapid population growth – Africa and parts of the Middle East – which will add around one billion people altogether in the next 25 years. This creates an opportunity for massive market growth if economic stability and governance goals can be achieved (a big if), but 52 per cent of this population growth is likely to be Muslim: an obvious problem for the pork industry.

So, in a cruel twist of fate, many of the same areas experiencing the greatest demographic challenges are also the areas with the highest levels of pork imports and the areas with the most potential growth are a challenge for the pork industry.

Friends, not foes

The implications of the current trade dispute are stark: with global demand slowing overall and reversing in key markets, the export market will become fiercely competitive. A unified Canada-U.S. pork industry – leveraging its scale, efficiency and complementary strengths with Mexico – is far more competitive on the world stage than any of us can be alone. A self-inflicted weakening of our partnership now is a grave strategic error that undermines our collective ability to compete in the challenging decades ahead.

This dispute is more than a line item on a balance sheet; it is causing financial pain, impacting real people and businesses. If it spreads, it threatens to permanently fragment our efficient North American system and dangerously weaken our collective strength right when global competition is set to intensify.

The choice before our leaders is clear: continue a self-defeating internal conflict or restore the partnership that provides our single greatest advantage in global trade. The challenges ahead are global in scale and will require our absolute best. Our integrated North American pork and broader agriculture system gives us an edge no other region can easily replicate. Restoring that partnership and focusing our collective energy on winning in a tougher global market is not just the best option, it is the only one that makes strategic sense.

By Zhiqi Zhou

Editor’s note: Zhiqi Zhou is a communications and journalism intern with the Canadian Pork Council (CPC). For more information, contact Chloe Belchamber, Manager, Operations and PPRA, CPC at ‘belchamber@cpc-ccp.com.’

The Canadian pork industry is a vital part of the national economy and a global leader in producing safe, high-quality and sustainable food. At the heart of many of the sector’s advancements is the Pork Promotion and Research Agency (PPRA): a federally legislated body that plays a behind-the-scenes yet crucial role in supporting the industry’s growth.

Chloe Belchamber, Manager of Operations and PPRA, Canadian Pork Council (CPC) spoke about the agency’s work, highlighting how it fuels innovation, supports marketing efforts, collaborates across sectors and faces evolving challenges with a forward-looking approach.

“Rather than focusing on branded campaigns, the agency supports generic pork research and promotional efforts that benefit the entire sector,” said Belchamber. “The PPRA is intended to fuel innovation, support marketing efforts, and lead to collaboration across sectors while facing evolving challenges with a forward-looking approach.”

The PPRA was established under the Farm Products Agencies Act, with a mandate to promote the production and marketing of hogs and pork products across interprovincial, export and import trade. The PPRA’s activities are funded through an import levy system. This levy – equal to the domestic check-off amount – is applied to all imported hogs, pork and pork products. The information used to calculate the levy comes from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (AAFC) and the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA), and invoicing is handled on the PPRA’s behalf by the Canadian Beef Check-Off Agency, which brings more than 15 years of experience in levy collection. Levy funds are re-invested into strategic initiatives aimed at making the Canadian pork industry more competitive and sustainable.

“By complying with World Trade Organization regulations and principles of national treatment, the agency’s model ensures fairness between imported and domestic products,” said Belchamber. “A unique aspect of the PPRA’s work is that its promotional and research materials are made available to all industry players – producers, importers and processors alike.”

This inclusive approach encourages everyone to contribute to strengthening pork’s position in the marketplace and ensures Canadian pork continues to be trusted, innovative and efficient on both the domestic and global stages.

Marketing and research benefit

A major pillar of the PPRA’s mission is supporting research that drives improvements in production practices, environmental sustainability and animal welfare. Research activities are carried out through a service provider agreement with Swine Innovation Porc (SIP).

SIP’s investments in science are already producing tangible results. For instance, current projects include strategies to optimize phosphorus and nitrogen utilization and studies on replacing antimicrobials in weaned piglets. SIP also supports research into animal welfare, including transitional funding for a dedicated Animal Welfare Chair. All these projects fall under a newly launched framework that facilitates knowledge transfer and ensures that research findings are shared directly with producers.

The PPRA, meanwhile, plays an active role in consumer education and marketing. Through its partnership with Canada Pork, the agency runs broad-reaching marketing campaigns to promote pork’s value without highlighting any specific brand. One such campaign, ‘Pork, Eh!’ uses multiple social media platforms to showcase pork’s nutritional benefits, versatility and cooking ideas for consumers.

In a sector as interconnected as agriculture, collaboration is essential, and the PPRA is no exception. The agency works directly with producers and processors to disseminate research findings and marketing tools that can be adapted to suit individual needs. It also partners with key government agencies, including AAFC and CBSA, to facilitate levy collection and ensure regulatory compliance. Oversight is provided by the Farm Products Council of Canada.

“Close relationships with organizations such as Canada Pork and SIP ensure that marketing and research programs remain aligned with industry needs and priorities,” said Belchamber. “These partnerships allow the PPRA to deliver meaningful results while avoiding duplicating efforts.”

Challenges remain despite advantages

Despite its many successes, the PPRA and the Canadian pork industry face significant challenges. Chief among them is maintaining competitiveness in both domestic and international markets. This requires constant innovation, high production standards and the ability to respond to changing consumer demands. Increasingly, Canadian consumers are prioritizing health, sustainability and ethical practices, which are driving their choices. This shift places pressure on the Canadian pork industry to remain transparent at all stages of the value chain, while continuing to deliver high-quality products.

At the same time, regulatory changes – whether they involve trade agreements, environmental policies or animal health standards – can significantly impact the industry. Adapting to these changes requires agility, cooperation and often new investments in compliance and innovation.

Potential foreign animal disease outbreaks are another challenge that should not be underestimated. If African Swine Fever (ASF) or Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) were to be discovered in Canada, it could devastate pork production and processing by shutting down access to export markets, triggering major backlogs of domestic pigs and pork that would ultimately need to be absorbed by the Canadian consumer market. For the PPRA, this would mean a dramatic loss of revenue, since the agency relies on imports to generate funding. Without those imports, its ability to support vital research and promotional work could be severely limited. Still, Belchamber remains optimistic.

“Through careful planning, strong partnerships and a focus on shared benefits, the PPRA continues to provide crucial support to one of Canada’s most important agricultural sectors,” said Belchamber. “By investing in generic, science-based promotion and research, the agency is helping producers not just adapt to change, but lead the way in shaping a resilient, innovative future for Canadian pork.”

By Andrew Heck

Editor’s note: Andrew Heck is past Editor, Canadian Hog Journal. He can be contacted at ‘andrewtheck@gmail.com.’

The 11th annual Porc Show took place at the Quebec City Convention Centre on Dec. 10 & 11, inviting hundreds of Canadian and international guests to hear keynote speeches looking at the geopolitical situation and upcoming innovations in the sector, along with workshop presentations in the areas of animal health, farm management and consumer marketing.

Adopting artificial intelligence has been a slow march

Jacquelin Labrecque, CEO, Ro-Main explored progress being made with artificial intelligence (AI) in hog production. AI in precision hog production has been slow to materialize, despite being full of promises.

“I think most will agree with me when I say that artificial intelligence seems to be a bit delayed,” said Labrecque.

To better understand the phenomenon, Labrecque used the ‘Gartner Hype Cycle’ model to evaluate AI’s trajectory in hog production. This model, created by U.S.-based technology research firm, Gartner, describes five phases of technological adoption: technology trigger, peak of inflated expectations, trough of disillusionment, slope of enlightenment and plateau of productivity. While the ‘trough of disillusionment’ occurred during the timeline of the COVID-19 pandemic, Labrecque believes the industry is now accelerating up the ‘slope of enlightenment,’ and the ‘plateau of productivity’ is quickly approaching on the horizon.

Labrecque described some of the promises of AI that the industry had come to expect, which, so far, remain theoretical more than practical.

“Among the applications, we talked about behavior monitoring for early disease detection, animal welfare, weighing using imaging technology, animal facial recognition. We’ve been talking about that for 20 years,” said Labrecque. “There is another element of artificial intelligence that is the management of massive data. We have electronic systems that generate a lot of data every day, so how can we give value to this data in the future?”

Considering what has held back the industry from realizing the goal of AI, Labrecque provides a blunt assessment of bottom-line factors.

“So many interesting ideas, but we realize we have to abandon most of these ideas for technological and cost reasons,” said Labrecque. “Nobody’s going to introduce technology on the farm that does not produce any return on investment. Many businesses did a lot of marketing around AI because it was fashionable.”

Looking at the nuances of AI application, Labrecque highlights some specific complications.

“We work with living beings. It’s very complex,” said Labrecque. “We have a lot of cases of AI’s potential uses that are still not well defined and not demonstrated by research. Regarding animal science, technology still awaits new knowledge in order to go forward.”

While applied AI is making gains in other industries, led by world-renowned businesses like Google, this same movement hasn’t been seen in animal agriculture.

“When you want to automate something with AI on your farm and you need instant results to make your decisions, you cannot depend on an Internet connection,” said Labrecque. “Yet, most AI systems today are still developed in order to work with the cloud.”

The problems with AI’s barriers to adoption on-farm are relatively easy to understand, but potential solutions are lacking. Labrecque proposes that, for AI to work in hog production, it needs to be able to operate free of the online digital environment, but still with the ability to apply updates as the technology evolves and as producers tailor technologies to their own systems.

Where AI has succeeded in the pork sector includes genetic selection tools and carcass imaging, though these have less of a direct impact on producers’ day-to-day operations.

“The most advanced developments that have the biggest impact on you are things you might not even be aware of,” said Labrecque.

What does the future hold for AI in hog production? Labrecque remains optimistic and excited. He provided a wish list of target areas where development should be focussed, automating process that are currently being done in barns in a more time-consuming, tedious and potentially less-accurate manner than they could be with the help of technology.

“There are a lot of things we do with our eyes that could be automated,” said Labrecque. “And they can be done in a more objective way.”

Balancing barn-washing effectiveness with efficiency

Yves Garceau, Senior Agronomy Advisor, Éleveurs de porcs du Québec spoke about accelerating and improving barn washing while reducing water consumption. He suggested that effective soap-and-water washing protocols can best prepare a barn prior to applying disinfectants.

“Why do we wash? First of all, to eliminate pathogens in the barn and make the premises more hygienic,” said Garceau. “But once we’ve removed the dirt, there’s a biofilm. We try to eliminate that because it serves as a shelter for pathogens. And the disinfectants that we have are effective, but they become ineffective shortly thereafter.”

That unseen coating on the surfaces should not be under-estimated in terms of what sticks to it.

“It’s a melting pot of micro-organisms, bacteria, yeast, extracellular polysaccharides. This is excreted by bacteria and sub-products,” said Garceau. “These could be proteins and nucleic acid. So spit and feed and minerals and organic matter. Everything we can find on a farm, it stays there and grows.”

Garceau’s presentation referenced a study by four researchers from the Quebec Agri-Environment Research and Development Institute (IRDA) and one from the Centre de développement du porc du Québec (CDPQ), which tested variables associated with barn-washing, including water temperature, pressure and distance from surface, along with types of nozzles and surfaces, all of which impact washing efficiency and effectiveness.

In general, what helps save water is using hotter water with greater pressure and quicker passes over surfaces; however, there is a sweet spot when it comes to the amount of force used. Too little, and it takes longer and uses more water. Too much, and surfaces are covered less evenly.

“When we look at this economically speaking, is it worth it to use hot water? I would say yes,” said Garceau. “We know that the labour costs of washing are of great importance.”

When it comes to the type of surfaces, ease of washing varies greatly, with cast iron being very difficult, followed distantly by concrete. Stainless steel, by comparison, is much easier. The age of surfaces can also affect how porous they are, increasing washing difficulty.

Garceau reinforced the significance of choosing a pressure washer. While some are more expensive than others, the old adage holds true: you get what you pay for.

“Consider hot water. It’s worth it, really,” said Garceau. “You can lower the pressure and increase the flow. It’s going to be easier on your equipment, and it’ll do the job.”

Based on the study, Garceau recommends different parameters for a flat jet and rotary jet. For a flat jet, use water at a minimum of 40 degrees-Celsius at one kilometre per hour and 0.6 Megapascals. For a rotary jet, aim for water at a minimum of 35 degrees-Celsius at two kilometres per hour and 20 Megapascals.

Realizing pork’s potential at retail

Stéphane Bergeron, Meat Group Supply Manager, Sobeys (Quebec), provided an overview of opportunities for pork at retail. When it comes to understanding the value chain, Bergeron insists that every part of the value chain has different needs that require attention for collective success.

“It’s important to understand the reality of each piece of the chain, from producers to processors and retailers,” said Bergeron. “The reality is different for each entity, and we have the opportunity to understand everyone’s reality.”

While strengthening the value proposition of Canadian pork in grocery stores remains a challenge across the country, in Quebec, companies including Sobeys have committed to sourcing all their fresh pork locally.

“At Sobeys, we did a study with consumers and asked what they consider to be ‘local,’” said Bergeron. “When we looked at processed products, the importance was lesser. If we look at fruit and vegetables, when we have an apple, for the consumer, it’s important to have an apple from Quebec. But when they drink apple juice, it’s less important for them.”

The desire for fresh pork from Quebec, among Quebec consumers, differed when compared to beef, which consumers were more inclined to apply a broader definition of ‘local’: ‘Canadian’ versus ‘Quebec.’ Despite this, and despite Sobeys commitment to selling only local pork, the latest sales data, by dollar value, suggests three-quarters of meat spending in Quebec Sobeys is related to beef and chicken, with pork and other proteins making up the remaining quarter.

Even though pork is by-and-far the most affordable option in the meat cooler, when it comes to why consumers are more prone to picking other meats, there’s more to the story.

“Consumers’ habits are different with pork than other proteins,” said Bergeron. “According to another study, only 77 per cent of Quebec consumers eat pork at least once a week. That means pork is less consumed than other proteins.”

Pork is often on sale more than other meats, which may have an interesting effect on consumers’ perceptions of the product: it’s cheaper, and not in a good way. Dietary preferences also punish pork when it comes to large-scale events where many people are eating the same food options, with organizers opting for beef and chicken over pork.

When beef price inflation began to climb rapidly several years ago, this spelled a missed opportunity for pork marketing. Despite efforts, consumers are still willing to purchase beef over pork, which reflects not only what they like to eat but their purchasing decisions. A familiar though expensive beef steak is often a more appealing choice than an unfamiliar but innovative pork offering.

“We need to be able to promote pork as a protein that’s not only affordable but also something that can be distinguished – something that people will really desire,” said Bergeron.

Bergeron goes on to demonstrate the difference between a premium cut and premium product. While Canadian grocery stores showcase a wide range of beef cuts – from the most economical to the highest-end – this is less common with pork, where premium cuts are often exported. That means, for pork to succeed domestically, creativity is needed to turn ordinary cuts into better products.

“There’s a trend that’s very present now. There are many, many ramen products in the grocery stores – Asian products. So the consumer is open to discovery,” said Bergeron. “And, these days, it’s more difficult in certain cases when cuts are more conventional.”

Bergeron ultimately recognizes that pork’s popularity – or lack thereof – can be paradoxical. On one hand, showcasing novel offerings for consumers may spark interest, but on the other hand, if the offering doesn’t sell, it creates waste and lost revenue for the retailer, which makes retailers wary of such experimentation.

Quebec’s charm continues to attract interest

The Porc Show’s tried-and-true format also included a panel discussion on the first day of the event, which, this year, covered ‘Pork in a Changing World.’ The second day of the event featured a plated lunch – the outcome of a culinary student contest that comes with a cash prize for those involved, along with the prestige of having their dish showcased for guests. The second day wraps up with a cocktail celebration featuring products from Quebec-based food and beverage businesses, with a focus on pork. 

The Porc Show’s attractive mix of timely and important subject matter, networking opportunities and hospitality continues to draw guests from far and wide every year. The show’s organizers, sponsors and presenters routinely churn out a high-calibre event, and Quebec City’s French-Canadian history and charm remains an enjoyable bonus for visitors.