Tuesday, July 1, 2025

Producer-packer tensions threaten viability

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By Andrew Heck

The Canadian pork industry is only as strong as its least-appreciated asset: producers.

Business continuity is currently under threat due to a host of issues in the industry, and underscoring the struggle is a lopsided relationship between producers and packers, which is further slanted down the value chain at the retail level. Consumers often do not see this, and it remains far too easy for them to ignore that reality when food continues to fill their plates.

Research from the Canadian Centre for Food Integrity (CCFI) shows that the Canadian public trusts farmers, even if many non-farmers are not always up-to-speed with how the agriculture industry operates. As such, producers have earned a significant amount of respect from many people who are simply not aware of the financial dynamics at play. Even among producers, interpreting the dollars-and-cents paper trail can seem like a bit of a shell game.

Addressing long-term viability – specifically independent producer profitability – requires certain challenges to be brought to light for the betterment of all partners. With the decade-low prices seen in September 2018 and similar prices in April 2020, many producers are still stuck in multi-year contracts with packers. As it stands, some producers have been and will continue to make a departure from producing pigs altogether before losing more of their equity.

Coming together for the greater good

In mid-May, the pork producer organizations in B.C., Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba issued a joint invitation to executives from Maple Leaf Foods, Olymel and Donald’s Fine Foods to have an open and frank discussion on the state of the industry, and to work for solutions that generate shared value for producers and processors.

Part of the written invitation reads: “As a result of our flawed value sharing system, pig producers in Canada have needed to rely on the goodwill of the federal and provincial governments and taxpayer dollars to support producers’ very survival.”

It continues, “For too long, the producer and packer have been at odds with each other, and it has created an unmanageable and antagonistic relationship that is weakening the industry and the brand in the global marketplace. This approach must come to an end.”

Shortly after the letter was sent to packers, notice was given to the broader Canadian pork industry and news media. Following the wider distribution, David Duval, Chair, Les Éleveurs de porcs du Québec (Quebec Pork Producers) expressed his support for the initiative:

“This is a very legitimate request that espouses our concerns that we have repeatedly expressed to our partners in Quebec. Sharing the price according to the real value of pork on the markets is a critical issue, both for the sustainability of pork producers and for buyers.”

With the COVID-19 pandemic highlighting some of the stress points in our value chain, producers are eager as ever to work on solutions. With limited options at their avail, many producers are feeling cornered by the lack of incentive to grow their businesses. The resulting stalemate can be considered a huge lost opportunity for everyone.

Processor profits helped by narrow producer margins

Olymel not only exports fresh and frozen pork but also offers a diverse line of products that are enjoyed by Canadians across the country, supported by hard-working local producers, who often receive a fraction of the retail price.

Réjean Nadeau, President & CEO, Olymel, in his company’s most recent annual report, stated: “The Western hog production sector recorded a loss in 2019 almost equal to that of the previous year despite the favourable impact of a weaker Canadian dollar. The loss stemmed primarily from lower livestock prices and higher grain costs.”

While that is no shock to producers, on the meat side, the story was different: “In 2019, the Western fresh pork sector recorded improved results for the fifth successive year despite the suspension of the Red Deer plant’s export licence for China. This solid performance was driven primarily by a higher meat margin stemming from the increase in slaughtering volume and a greater share of value-added products.”

Olymel’s strategic targets, as indicated by the company’s strong push for overseas market development, are largely dependent on a reliable, increasing supply of hogs for its plants. Olymel operates four hog slaughtering facilities in Quebec and one Alberta. Aside from a two-week span in mid-April, during which time one plant was temporarily shuttered after several workers contracted COVID-19, Olymel typically cannot get enough hogs to satisfy existing capacity and new growth.

In Alberta and Saskatchewan, Olymel’s integrated 50,000-sow production accounts for more than 60 per cent of what is shipped to its plant in Red Deer. Factoring in everything else Olymel contracts or buys, the company owns most hogs on-farm in Alberta, effectively controlling the largest proportion of available supply.

The highly skewed nature of producer-to-processor leverage, in favour of processors, places producers in the difficult situation of having only two prominent hog buyers dominating the market. It is a precarious position for those who may feel powerless to break the cycle of disadvantageous contract negotiations.

Further complicating the situation is the difference between production levels and profits in western and eastern Canada, which translates into a disparity between what producers are paid in Alberta and Saskatchewan versus Quebec.

Olymel is a division of La Coop fédérée, now known as Sollio Groupe Coopératif. The cooperative is composed of more than two dozen localized traditional agriculture networks in Quebec, to which thousands of hog producers belong. In 2019, Sollio distributed $17.6 million in patronage refunds to cooperatives and paid a $2.4 million dividend to the Cooperative Pork Chain.

In addition, for those who raise hogs in Quebec, the provincial Farm Income Stabilization Insurance (ASRA) program provides an added competitive advantage by acting as a form of collective insurance to protect against market and production cost fluctuations. Complementary to the federal AgriStability and AgriInvest programs, ASRA pays compensation when the average selling price is lower than the stabilized income. The stabilized income is based on the production cost of specialized farm businesses.

In western Canada, there is one saving grace for producers who sell to Olymel: a transport proximity bonus, introduced in mid-2019, that helps off-set the cost of shipping to Red Deer. Additionally, the company has recently widened its grids to accept larger hogs, introduced incentives for group sow housing and provided new futures-based forward-contracting options. While these perks have helped sweeten the pot for some, many producers are still seeking options for mutual prosperity.

Olymel asks to revert Quebec pricing decision

Quebec’s recently established pricing formula has proven to be an equitable, stable model based on a price control mechanism, quality assurance premiums and cut-out values.

Among the potential solutions that could help producers across Canada is a pricing structure that takes into consideration cut-out values, such as the model in Quebec.

Despite having established a new pricing model for that province less than two years ago, Olymel appealed to the Régie des marchés agricoles et alimentaires du Québec (the province’s commodity marketing council) in early Marchto suspend the use of the existing price formula for a four-month period, on account of the COVID-19 pandemic, citing short-term processor losses.

Olymel’s request was for a return to a combined formula taking 75 per cent of the previous structure while maintaining 25 per cent of the current structure outlined in the province’s 2019 to 2022 Marketing Agreement. Les éleveurs de porcs du Québec (Quebec Pork Producers) quickly opposed the decision, which would have slanted the tables back to less equitable pre-2019 times.

Quebec Pork’s opposition was based on Olymel’s lack of a comprehensive proposal that would help reduce surplus pigs – a key issue at the time of the request. In the interest of fair risk sharing, Quebec Pork offered a temporary fallback proposal, which involved a 50 per cent calculation combining the two pricing formulas.

The rationale for the temporary decision was largely based on Olymel’s arguments: destabilization due to COVID-19, including the Yamachiche plant’s two-week shutdown and consequent retrofitting measures required for workers, caused harm to Olymel’s slaughter margins and would have further affected meat-cutting. While such measures equally impact those who raise pigs, the suggestion of a combined formula disappointed producers.

In early June, following a series of hearings, the Régie overturned the temporary 50-50 split, favouring a reversion to the pre-COVID structure. The decision, however, adds a condition that prevents the hog slaughter price from falling below 65 per cent of the cut-out price. In May, the price disparity resulted in record-high payouts to producers. Further hearings to review the decision are scheduled for July, August and September.

Going green while producers are in the red

Maple Leaf Foods’ green initiatives have been turning heads around the world, but are producers being noticed?

Sustainability in the pork sector can mean different things to different people. For consumers, the word often conjures up impressions of eco-friendliness. But for producers, business continuity is the primary focus when margins are tight.

In November 2019, Maple Leaf Foods made the announcement that its organization had become the first major food company anywhere in the world to achieve carbon neutrality through the purchase of carbon offsets in addition to processing plant upgrades. As a result, in December 2019, Maple Leaf received a $2 billion loan from BMO as a sustainability incentive. This type of “green lending” is gaining traction in Canada as motivation for companies to lower their carbon footprint.

In January 2020, Rory McAlpine, Senior Vice President, Government and Industry Relations, Maple Leaf Foods, suggested during the Canadian Agricultural Economics Society policy summit in Ottawa that competitiveness is an issue for processors. Environmental regulations, carbon pricing and other factors have hindered growth compared to Canadian processors’ American counterparts. While the argument may hold water in a direct comparison, Maple Leaf’s $600-million chicken processing facility under construction in London, Ontario, announced in November 2018 – which is receiving more than $50 million in combined funding from the governments of Ontario and Canada – may also suggest a discrepancy in that line of reasoning.

With the release of Maple Leaf’s latest annual report, Michael McCain, CEO, stated: “At Maple Leaf Foods, we have embraced the principle of shared value and are on a purposeful journey to become the most sustainable protein company on earth… We believe our company’s financial health and competitiveness are intertwined with the health of local, national and global communities.”

He added, “For the year, our meat protein segment delivered 10.4 per cent adjusted EBITDA margins, up 50 basis points over the prior year, while absorbing the impact of difficult and unnaturally volatile market conditions which produced headwinds of 110 basis points. This speaks to the underlying strength of the business.”

Maple Leaf’s pursuit of shared value, while noble, may appear to conflict with its ambitious growth strategy. And while growth is no sin in the business world, the consequence may be that producers are no longer able to compete.

Contracts demystified using new tools

Alberta Pork has worked with the CPC to develop a pricing calculator (under development) that lays bare contract options, to give producers a decision-making advantage.

For the average producer, making heads or tails out of contract specifics can be a nightmare. For those signing the contract without a full disclosure of straightforward information, what appears to be a win-win deal can end up hurting producers by locking up their hogs at an unfavourable price. Market volatility is the name of the free market capitalism game, but not every party is necessarily equipped to fight fairly.

In early May, Alberta Pork published on its website a new Economics section designed to support producer success by providing the tools for effective contract decision-making. The section includes pork market and hog supply reports, information on cost of production and the latest economic research, in addition to pricing formula breakdowns for western Canada’s federally inspected processors.

“COVID-19 has changed our world, and it is now time to fix the main issue that hampers the Canadian pork industry,” said Darcy Fitzgerald, Executive Director, Alberta Pork. “Producers are simply asking for a system that gives them a financial reason to produce pigs. The catalyst for change is transparency, and it starts by placing as many cards on the table as possible. With the problem fully laid out in the open, it becomes more difficult to avoid solutions that are beneficial to both parties.”

Following on that work, Alberta Pork teamed up with the Canadian Pork Council (CPC) in June to develop a pricing calculator to allow producers to use their own numbers for evaluating various contract options.

“The calculator will provide an important opportunity for producers to consider adjusting their businesses, according to any marketing options they might have in the future,” said Phyllis MacCallum, Sector Analyst, CPC. “With the help of this new tool, we hope to strengthen producer leverage and encourage further work toward a fairer, more accurate pricing structure for all Canadian pork producers.”

The calculator will use pricing formula data compiled in-house by Alberta Pork, based on U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) mandatory reporting, which is also the basis for Canadian prices. Producers can enter their own information, which then creates a hypothetical comparison between contracts for most western Canadian packers and Quebec. The goal is to eventually include options for additional packers, including those in Ontario.

Donald’s pursues unique opportunities

B.C.-based Donald’s Fine Foods sources most of its hogs from Alberta. The company also operates Thunder Creek Pork in Saskatchewan.

It can be challenging to serve niche markets, with an Asian focus, while having to rely on a largely out-of-province source of hogs, but Donald’s Fine Foods has risen to the occasion for more than two decades.

Starting in the late-1990s, Donald’s made significant investments to grow Britco Pork – an acquisition that helped transform the company from a humble Lower Mainland meat cutter into an up-and-coming heavy hitter in western Canadian pork processing.

In 2005, Donald’s meat-cutting facility in Richmond, B.C. was commissioned, followed by the purchase of Thunder Creek Pork in Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan in 2010, along with the launch of the Sakura Farms brand in 2012 and the purchase of Five Corners Meat Co. in 2017.

The province of B.C. is home to only a handful of commercial producers, making hog supply a challenge for a company looking to maintain – let alone expand – its operations. As such, Donald’s today relies extensively on Alberta producers who ship to its slaughter plant in Langley.

It can be a perilous trip across the Rocky Mountains, no less than 1,000 kilometres for the closest producers in Alberta, and while new transport regulations have been a learning curve, Donald’s maintains its commitment to producers by fully covering transport costs and pricing pigs to match the Maple Leaf Signature 4 formula.

In late May, Donald’s undertook an eight-week study to determine the viability of converting a former beef plant in Moose Jaw into a sow processing facility, to complement its operations at the nearby Thunder Creek plant. The study is considering the financial feasibility of such a conversion, in addition to overall support from producers, the public and government.

“[This] announcement is the first step toward a strategic investment to meet the demand for domestic sow processing,” says Allan Leung, CEO, Donald’s Fine Foods. “We want to create more opportunities for pork producers and support the forecasted need for domestic sow processing capacity.”

Thunder Creek will continue to operate independently, and the jobs created from the sow processing facility would be entirely new. The new plant is anticipated to employ approximately 100 people, with the capacity to process most cull sows in western Canada. Currently, producers export over 80 per cent of their cull sows to the U.S.

HyLife steps up to the plate

Along with paying producers a premium for CPE, HyLife is growing business in a responsible way, including the acquisition of new assets in Manitoba and Minnesota.

As producer organizations continue to lean on packers for support, one stands out in terms of its progressive efforts to strengthen relationships: HyLife. In April, the company introduced new premiums to reward producers, including a bonus for hogs validated under the Canadian Pork Excellence (CPE) program, in addition to weight- and ration-based incentives.

Like other counterparts in Canadian pork processing, HyLife is undertaking ambitious steps to grow business. In early May, the company announced the acquisition of more than 37,000 sows and 250 employees after purchasing ProVista’s hog operations.

“We have a long working relationship with ProVista and look forward to building on all the hard work that they have done,” said Grant Lazaruk, President & CEO, HyLife. “This acquisition enables HyLife to expand our production team and secure hog supply to facilitate future growth.”

In late May, HyLife further grew its capacity and employee base by purchasing a 75 per cent equity interest in Prime Pork, a recently renovated facility that produces, processes and sells pork products out of Windom, Minnesota, southwest of Minneapolis. Prime Pork raises 300,000 feeder hogs to market weight annually and sources the remainder from third-party suppliers. The newly acquired plant currently processes one million hogs annually, on a single shift. The company’s main processing facility is in Neepawa, Manitoba, northeast of Brandon, where they process 3.2 million pigs annually.

While HyLife shares its competitors’ growth desires, the company appears to be taking calculated, considerate steps toward expansion with independent producers’ interests in mind, helping to augment the company’s integrated operations – a refreshing situation for everyone.

All parties must cooperate to move forward

As the 2020 calendar year stumbles along in often unpredictable ways, flaws in the Canadian pork supply chain’s shared value approach are being made more apparent than ever.

The COVID-19 pandemic did not cause the issues inherent to the pork sector when it comes to pricing and capacity. However, the pandemic has highlighted in a very powerful, public way the vulnerabilities that exist within our system.

In terms of ensuring the viability of that system in the future, it will need to adapt. In terms of cultivating a positive reputation for our sector, all parties will need to cooperate and present a united front to retailers and consumers. Transparency is key.

Producers and the industry cannot wait any longer for change. The ball is now in the packers’ court. Who will accept the challenge, and who will dismiss it? At this point, it is not a matter of discovery and understanding, but action.

“There are no problems, there is just a lot of little problems.” -Henry Ford-

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Pork Commentary, July 6th, 2020
Jim Long, President-CEO, Genesus Inc.

Henry Ford was a man who went bankrupt more than once. It didn’t dissuade him, he kept going and in time built a business empire and became a legend in America/World business.

Henry Ford comes to mind as seven years ago this July 4th weekend, my family went to Detroit and toured the Henry Ford Museum, Greenfield Village, and the Rouge River Ford Assembly Plant, all legacies of his foresight. Of note, Henry Ford evolved the modern Car Assembly line after visiting a Hog Packing Plant in Cincinnati, Ohio where he saw hogs being carried by a moving line to stationary workers.

The U.S. hog industry is in a dark time. Prices and the losses associated with that are huge. Some estimates put potential annual U.S. producer losses at $5 billion total. Henry Ford statement “There are no big problems, there is just little problems.”

What are the little problems (little might be subjective) in the hog industry?

Lean Hog Price

Lean Hog Prices are in the mid 40’s.

Losses per head are $40-60 for many producers.

Coronavirus

Coronavirus tore up the Packing Plants. Now they appear to be back to near normal production. Can they keep going? Gross Packer Margins are excellent working as huge incentive to kill hogs.

Hogs backed up.

Certainly, the plant closures and slowdowns backed up Hogs. Our sense, most of Eastern Corn Belt is not backed up, Canada is not backed up, Eastern Iowa is okay. The dilemma is the 4-state corner of Iowa–Minnesota–South Dakota–Nebraska. There it’s a real issue.

Lean Hog Futures

Lean Hog Futures seem to us, an indicator of speculation more than the reality of the pork industry supply-demand too many times.

Observation – almost all if not all world hog markets are higher priced then the U.S. None of the other markets have a lean hog future market.

Spain which has the third-largest hog production in the world has a unique way to set their national hog price. Every Thursday 1:00 pm representatives from the Producers, Packers, Processors and Retailers meet to set the price of market hogs for the week. We have attended the meeting in the past. Seems to us these negotiations have led to a continual balancing of each segment of the industry’s interests where each sector’s margins are respected. It takes away one sector losing $40-60 per head which another is making $60.

Pork Export 

Exports have held it. Appears U.S. to China exports were record high in May. With China hog prices above $2.00 U.S. a lb. they should buy lots more. The little problem is the U.S.–China political relationship. Ag products seem to get targeted in trade wars.

China has agreed to a Phase 1 deal to purchase U.S. ag products including Pork. It’s to the U.S. pork industries interest this is honored.

Mexico, the U.S. largest pork importer by volume, in May saw its hog price collapse. Since then it has recovered. This will lead to a recovery of U.S. pork exports to Mexico that had declined substantially.

U.S. Legislation

This past week U.S. Senators: Inhofe (Oklahoma), Burr (North Carolina), Tillis (North Carolina), Ernst (Iowa) and Grassley (Iowa) introduced new legislation.

The bill would: 

  1. Compensate hog producers who are forced to euthanize or donate animals that can’t be processed into the food supply due to Covid-19 related packing plant capacity reductions;
  2. Increase funding for animal health surveillance and laboratories, which have been tapped to perform Covid-19 testing during this human health emergency.
  3. Revise the Commodity Credit Corp. charter so a pandemic driven natural emergency qualifies for funding.

All these points are a reflection of the current swine industry situation.

June 1 U.S. Hogs and Pigs Report Glass Half Empty and/or Glass Half Full

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Pork Commentary, June 29th, 2020
Jim Long, President-CEO, Genesus Inc.

The June 1 USDA Hogs and Pigs Report had what in our opinion some interesting numbers.

June 1 Pigs Inventory (1,000 head)
 201920202020 as percent of 2019
Kept/breeding 6,4106,32699
Market69,31673,308106
Market Hogs and Pigs by weight group 
Under 50 pounds 22,21022,160100
50-119 pounds19,69320,370103
120-179 pounds14,39616,090112
180 pounds and over13,01714,687113
 201920202020 as percent of 2019
Sows Farrowing (1,000 head)
March 1 to May3,1333,172101
June 1 to Aug *3,2753,12395
Sept 1 to Nov *3,2653,09095
*intentions   
Pig Crop (1,000 head)
March 1 to May34,45434.933101
Pigs per Litter
March 1 to May1111.01100

Some Observations

The breeding herd is shown being down 1% but farrowing intentions are down 5%. The two numbers don’t align. Being optimistic we will go with the 5% lower farrowing. If that is the case and assuming no litter size increase like in the last quarter, drop last year’s Pig Crop June–Nov by 5% that’s 72,575,000 x 5% = 3,628,750 fewer pigs or 140,000 less a week. A significant decrease.

We have a hard time figuring the 50,000 sow herd drop in the last quarter. Sow slaughter was 90,000 more in the quarter than the same year before. We know of many farms that liquidated. We know gilt sales decreased. No doubt gilt retention decreased. Sow mortality was not abated. The 1% drop in sow inventory doesn’t jibe with 5% less farrowing intentions.

The quarter before Dec 1-Feb sow herd decreased 96,000, but only 50,000 this last quarter with all hell breaking loose in the last ninety days? Hard to comprehend. We expect the sow herd is declining each and every day.

The USDA Report indicates over 1.6 million more hogs than a year ago over 180 pounds. Certainly feasible but certainly isn’t the 7 million some were speaking of.

The number we can’t figure is the 1.6 million (+12%) head more this year than last in the 120-179 pound range. Where did these come from? Who has been slowing up these pigs? These pigs would’ve been in the March Report under 50-pound range and that was a plus 4%. Can’t figure this one.

Other Observations

Pigs under 50 pounds in June 1 report are the same as last year.

Packers are out offering new contracts. We haven’t seen that for a while. Indicates to us they want to lock up hogs in a supply program at prices more to their advantage versus when hog supply gets tighter.

What we don’t understand is if hogs are backed up why are Packers calling producers to get hogs? Not everywhere but in some places. The old adage “who’s calling who” comes to mind. Producers recently weren’t calling but begging to get hogs in.

Some people have said recent sow slaughter has been inflated by large market hogs. Last year sows averaged 304 lbs. carcass weight. This year April – 305 lbs., May – 303 lbs. You would expect a big number of large market hogs in sow slaughter would pull down average sow weights. 

All barns aren’t full. We know of a large site of almost 20,000 spaces that was empty. On Friday were told if we wanted some empty barns we could get. Biggest question, who has the capital and courage to own the pigs.

Last Thursday the avg weight on the National Daily Carcass Report was 210.95 lbs., down 2 lbs. from the week before. We continue to have a hard time understanding how the average weight of hogs continue to drop if hogs are backed up. The weight has dropped 10 lbs. since May. The weights are also lower than the same time a year ago by 1-2 lbs. 

Packers continue to ramp up production. Last week getting to 472,000 head on Friday and 2,641,000 for the week. Weekly slaughter was significantly higher than a year ago with 250,000 more hogs. The first time year over year any significance for several weeks. This might explain the weights declining fast but then again if hogs backed up, what gives?

Lean Hog Futures – the trades had a good pounding down hogs on Friday. They focused on the backed-up numbers and minimal decrease in the breeding herd.

Summary 

June Hogs and Pigs Report did next to nothing to support the market. It will continue to be a tough slog until market numbers come down. We expect continued liquidation.

The Path to Genetically Healthier Pigs

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by: Chad Bierman, Ph.D., Geneticist, Genesus Inc

Pathogens are a global threat to the swine industry. They arise from bacterial, viral, fungal, and parasitic sources. Numerous and often prone to mutation, with a tendency to become immune to treatment efforts over time.

Production flows within the North American swine industry routinely face challenges from multiple pathogens, and a resultant annual cost to the North American swine industry estimated in the billion-dollar range; with PRRS estimated at $664 million alone (AASV 2011 Position Statement on PRRS elimination). This suggests the swine industry would benefit from animals that have a higher capacity to survive health challenges.

An animal’s ability to withstand a disease challenge can be defined in many ways. Resistance, Resilience, Tolerance, and Robustness are all relevant descriptors. Genetic selection for each concept is uniquely defined, distinctively implemented, and depending on the circumstances, it can be beneficial under differing situations. Genetic selection for disease resistance seems optimal, as an animal resistant to a disease would appear to have an advantage over an animal that is not able to control a disease challenge; however, targeting a specific pathogen requires a considerable amount of upfront investment. Adding to that, the earlier-mentioned fact that there are numerous pathogens presents a real challenge to become resistant to them all. Viruses also tend to mutate, which can lead to low-rewarding efforts should the targeted pathogen suddenly transform and become re-infective to the population.

Selection for disease tolerance instead of resistance recognizes that an animal can still perform under the burden of varying disease levels. However, selection for disease tolerance requires simultaneous measurements on both performance and the levels of infection. Another downside to genetic selection for resistance or tolerance is the challenge of acquiring continuous records of the pathogen burden. The burden levels will likely vary over time, yet are required for genetic selection in both instances (Doeschl-Wilson et al., 2012).  

A final hurdle is that pathogen burdens do not exist within high-health nucleus herd environments that the pork industry demands. Therefore, an alternative approach is warranted.  

The concept of disease resilience offers the aforementioned alternative. It is a combination of resistance and tolerance and is defined as the ability of an animal to maintain performance across environments when exposed to pathogen challenges (Albers et al., 1987). Disease resilience is unique in that selection in favor of does not require specific knowledge of any certain pathogen or level of challenge. The resilience phenotype can, therefore, be considered robust across stressors, both health-related and non-health-related, and more practical for selection on the population’s future fitness when considering there will be new pathogens that arise for which we are currently unaware.  

Selection for disease resilience targets those genes that allow an animal to have a tolerating consequence, or quicker recovery in their performance when challenged (Figure 1). Instead of targeted gene discovery for a single pathogen, the selection is placed on a multigenic scale within the genome, using quantitative and molecular tools inside our genetic toolkit. The Genesus answer to healthier pigs lies within genetic selection for disease resilience phenotypes.  

Genesus has been involved in funding disease research for over 10 years. Several useful tools have been discovered from genome-wide association analyses and incorporated into the Genesus toolkit.

  • We have uncovered genomic regions that we place under selection to improve resilience to Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus (PRRSV).  
  • We are monitoring genomic regions found to affect susceptibility to Porcine Circovirus Associated Disease (PCVAD).  
  • Genesus is staying abreast of outside research and benefiting from our relationships within academia to improve our population’s resilience to E.Coli challenges.  

Furthermore, disease resilience traits have more recently been identified, which will aid in filling the previously empty, phenotype void. These phenotypes are necessary for selection purposes, and Genesus is now able to key in on those specific attributes to identify more disease resilient animals.  

The trek is not finished, however.  Active research continues, and more tools continue to unfold for use in genetic selection for improved health.  Diseases are becoming more numerous and geographically spread. For this reason, selection for disease resilience must continue to be a key component inside the genetic selection programs of swine.

Genesus continues its involvement in disease research and is working to actively combine genomics and disease resilience phenotypes in the selection for higher-health animals. In the forthcoming months, we will share more of the breakthrough discoveries from our involvement in major research projects involving Genome Canada, Genome Alberta, PigGen Canada, USDA National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA) and the Alberta Meat and Livestock Agency. Through Genesus and these funding agencies, collaboration with projects and researchers at several major Universities around the world (e.g. University of Alberta, University of Saskatchewan, University of Guelph, Iowa State University, Kansas State University and University of Edinburgh) has transpired over the past decade.  

We look forward to sharing in more detail what implementation has occurred inside of Genesus from our collaboration with researchers at these organizations, and our involvement in utilizing these resources.  

Source: 

Albers, G. A. A., G. D. Gray, L. R. Piper, J. S. F. Barker, L. F. Lejambre, and I. A. Barger. 1987. The genetics of resistance and resilience to Haemonchus contortus infection in young Merino sheep. Int. J. Parasitol. 17:1355–1363.

Doeschl-Wilson, A. B., B. Villanueva, and I. Kyriazakis. 2012. The first step towards genetic selection for host tolerance to infectious pathogens: Obtaining the tolerance phenotype through group estimates.  Front. Genet. 3:265.

Hog Market Continues to Suffer

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Pork Commentary, June 22nd, 2020
Jim Long, President-CEO, Genesus Inc.

Last week the U.S. hog market harvest reached 2,587,000, about 130,000 more than a week ago and a year ago. Packers are obviously getting more hogs killed as they navigate coronavirus issues including having enough employees at work. Packers have great motivation as the DTN Gross Packer Margins calculation is $53 per head, a year ago it was around $20 per head. We expect U.S. Packers to continue to ramp up production, motivated by excellent gross packer margins.

U.S. hog market weights continue to decline. The first four days last week had everyday weights about 1.5 lbs. lower than the same day the week before. Weights last week on the National Base were also over 1 lb. lighter than a year ago.

Some claim 4-7 million hogs backed up due to plant closings and shutdowns but we have a hard time, right or wrong, getting to that number with weights having dropped 10 lbs. liveweight since the first part of May. Also, we hear from the field a number of our Genetic customers are not backed up. Many are selling ahead in case of plant closures. The last week we heard of plants in the Eastern Corn Belt calling looking for hogs. The customers we do have backed up are in the Quad state corner of Nebraska-South Dakota-Minnesota-Iowa. There it is real. The multi-plant closures in that area have caused real problems. 

We also know there has been ongoing euthanization of market hogs and smaller pigs. How many is anyone’s guess but it has and is happening. 

Usually, this time of year is near maximum finishing capacity as all pigs to be harvested from now to January are in inventory. Question if the market thinks there 4-7 million hogs backed up what will market do if inventory is less than this? Should there not be upside? If you’re a pork buyer whether domestic or foreign, you all have the same news. All these hogs backed up, why would you want to be an aggressive pork buyer when this expected supply is coming? Bottom line we don’t believe 4-7 million hogs backed up. June 1 U.S. Hogs and Pigs Report will tell us the story. 

Sow Harvest continues to be aggressive the latest weekly was 69,000+, last year’s average 57,500. It appears to us last quarters sow harvest was about 100,000 more than the same quarter a year ago. We also believe many poor skinny sows of little value (Hello world’s largest genetic company) that would normally go to slaughter are now being put down and not in sow slaughter count.

We expect  U.S. breeding herd is down at least 150,000 in the quarter and would not be surprised if it’s down 200,000 or more. Whatever the number, the U.S. production capacity continues to contract.

SummaryThe June 1st Hogs and Pigs Report, in our opinion, has the makings to be a major market mover to the positive. For us producers let’s hope so.

More Hogs Marketed! Lower Weights! Big Financial Losses! No Fun in Mudtown.

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Pork Commentary, June 15th, 2020
Jim Long, President-CEO, Genesus Inc.

For the second week in a row, U.S. market hog harvest was higher than a year ago. 2,457,000 vs. 2,439,000. We can only hope that U.S. plants can continue to ramp up production. Strong Gross Packer Margins certainly give an incentive.

Daily National Base Lean Hog Carcass weights continue to decline. The first four days of last week averaged 213.88 lbs; four weeks ago averaged 220.17 lbs. No doubt weights have come off the extreme highs. We certainly have a hard time fathoming how some can claim 4-7 million hogs backed up due to earlier plant slowdowns. In context, a week before averaged 215.51 and a year ago 214.58.

There is no way in our mind that hogs can be backed up to the extremes some are stating when we see average weights continuing to decline each and every week. We expect some producers are backed up while others have pulled hogs ahead. Depends on where in USA, which plant, fear of plant closing, feed ration management, etc. Many dynamics in play.

Question is how sow herd liquidation has happened. Last quarter December to February the USDA inventory indicated a 96,000 decrease. In that quarter U.S. sow slaughter was up 34,000 from the year before. When we look at the second quarter it appears to us that the U.S. sow slaughter will be up about 100,000 when final data is put together. We expect when combined with lower gilt retention and ongoing sow mortality the U.S. sow herd will decline in a range of 150-250,000. We realize this is a wide estimate.

We expect whatever it ends up on June 1st liquidation, currently cash isoweans and feeders at next to nothing and market hogs with a $40 loss per head is grinding the business to death. If it continues without profits more and more liquidation will happen. It’s hurting Big and Small. Some benefit from ownership in packing plants or percentage of gross packer margin but many do not.

Depending on the length and depth of the liquidation of the sow herd, packer capacity issues will not be a factor as millions of hog production disappear. Some call this Destructive Capitalism. Others destroying people’s livelihood and dreams.

Many of us have been in this business a long time. We remember the low prices of 1993-94 which ended most if not all the field farrowing – outside operations (now they would get premium). At the same time, there was the rise of Murphy Farm, Carrolls, Heartland Pork, Premium Standard Farm, Feed Company pig production in Purina. The low prices of 1998-99 hit and many of the organizations if not all ended up with restructured ownership due to the massive financial losses. Too big to fail was not true.

Over the last twenty years, there have been the issues of the hog cycle which continued to lead to further consolidation. 2019-2020 we have hit another big hog price issue. We have had Black Swan events related to ASF, Trade, and Coronavirus issues. Wham, Wham, Wham. It’s a big challenge. The word Force Majeure seems to have become as common as pigs per sow per year contracts of many types have been evolved. (nice word for broken). As a friend of ours says “no one goes broke if they can help it.”

By nature we are optimistic. Much as anyone in this industry needs to be. The upside we are producing a product that is the most consumed meat in the world. We know overtime the countries with the most competitive cost of production and access to markets will win. We also know that Darwinian Capitalism (hog cycle) will lead to higher prices from lower supply. It’s about capital and courage to get to the other side.

Finally U.S. Weekly Harvest
Surpasses a Year Ago

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Pork Commentary, June 8th, 2020
Jim Long, President-CEO, Genesus Inc.

After several weeks of hog harvests significantly below a year ago, this past week the U.S. got to 2,452,000, up 42,000 from the same week a year ago. Certainly a positive sign that U.S. plants are getting closer to the new normal in the coronavirus situation and packers certainly have the incentive to push harvest numbers, the latest DTN Gross Packer Margin calculation is $70.

Harvest numbers have recovered faster than many predicted, obviously phenomenal profit margin motivated packers to get things going. What’s the saying “Follow the money!”

There are information services that charge for their astute knowledge of the Meat Industry. One of them last week wrote the following “We estimate there are 4-7 million hogs which have been backed up and ready to go to slaughter.”

Let’s consider this 4-7 million number of backed-up hogs. Some Farmer Arithmetic.

  • 4 million hogs divided by 2.5 million hogs harvest a week is about 11 days of hog production;
  • 7 million hogs divided by 2.5 million hogs harvest a week is about 17 days of hog production.

Let’s assume an indicator of hogs being backed up would be slaughter weights.

National Daily Lean Hog Carcass

Week OfAvg. Carcass Weight
May 8, 2020220.43
May 29, 2020217.25
June 5, 2020 (Mon-Thursday avg.)214.95
June 7, 2019215.66

Hogs were 220.43 lb. carcass the first week of May indicating hogs were backed up for sure. Since then we have dropped at least 5 lbs. and now weights are in line with a year ago. It’s hard for us to fathom that any feed adjustments can back up 4-7 million market hogs (11-17 days) while weights have dropped continually the last four weeks.

We don’t believe numbers of 4-7 million hogs backed-up. Why?

  1. Weights same or lower than a year ago;
  2. The idea that there are 4-7 million more spaces for hogs is beyond comprehension of barn infrastructure.

We believe there are backed up hogs but they are mostly in the Southwest Minnesota-South Dakota-Northwest Iowa-Nebraska region. The closure in that area of Smithfield Sioux Falls, JBS Worthington, and Tyson plants for the length of time they were, backed up hogs there.

In other areas producers going to other plants are current with some more than current. Due to the coronavirus issues producers continually jammed as many hogs as possible in case their plant shut. Some producers are under 210 lb. carcass weight.

Probably hogs are not backed up as much as some speculate is because alternate harvesting happened with small plants and on-farm sales ramping up. Hogs moved all over the country as low hog prices and high pork prices created opportunities for some. Also, there has been euthanasia of market hogs and other weights. How much euthanasia is purely speculative, but we believe it has been significant enough to cut hog numbers.

Last week we wrote, watch the weights for the next two weeks. Last week we dropped couple lbs. If we continue this trend this week it will indicate to us that we are closer to current hog inventory.

Ramifications – we believe Lean Hog Future experts have bought into the 4-7 million hog back-up. Lean Hog Futures are terrible. If we suddenly discover that there are fewer hogs than the experts predict, there could be a sudden surge in hog prices as the market finds a big surprise. We will know soon enough; slaughter and their weight numbers don’t lie.

China 

The below table shows the changes of market hogs produced by leading Chinese Public Companies for the four-month period January-April 2019 and 2020. As you can see, there was a significant drop overall in market hogs produced. It appears to us the reality of China’s lower hog production due to ASF is far from over. This in itself should continue to support Global Hog Prices.

We expect China will be back in U.S. market stronger now that Pork Cut-outs have declined from being over $1.20 lb.

U.S. Hog Weights Continue to Baffle

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Pork Commentary, June 1st, 2020
Jim Long, President-CEO, Genesus Inc.
 

Last week we observed that U.S. harvest weights were decreasing. This totally baffles us. There is no doubt the official USDA slaughter numbers have been significantly lower for the last six weeks compared to expectations or last year.

Last week we would have expected hog weights to hold or increase due to Monday being Memorial Day and Plants were closed. Instead, Tuesday-Wednesday-Thursday averaged 217.03 lb. carcass weight. The week before average was 217.20 lb. and a year ago 215.54 lbs. Three weeks ago U.S. lean hog weights were over 221 lbs. 

It’s hard to believe hogs are backed up 5 million as some have stated. That is almost 3 weeks of U.S. weekly slaughter. Weight difference week over week and compared to last year don’t indicate anything close to this high a number.

In our opinion watch the next two weeks’ slaughter. We expect with current packer margins and plant productivity, weekly slaughters will be over 2.3 million head, watch the weights if they continue to decline it could be a strong indication that we are more current for various reasons (euthanization, non-major packer slaughter) then many expect. If so, we might get a nice bump in hog prices. We can hope.

Sow Slaughter

The latest weekly sow slaughter was 69,753 the week before over 70,000. Last year’s weekly sow slaughter averaged 57,500. From Dec 1st to Feb 29th the USDA Hogs and Pigs Report indicated the U.S. sow slaughter was 35,000 higher than a year ago. In March-April this year U.S. sow slaughter per week so far higher than March-April last year (up 36,000 total). 

We sell breeding stock at Genesus. There is no doubt gilt sales have declined. Not only for us but for the whole genetic industry. Producers are protecting cash flow and concerned about the future. Lower replacements cut the breeding herd.

Our farmer arithmetic on this. Looking at breeding herd decline from Dec to June 1st (6 months).

  • Dec-Feb = 96,000 USDA report
  • March-May = 180,000 (low side estimate 14,000 a week avg.) or 260,000 (high side estimate 20,000 a week avg.)
  • Potential loss of Pig Production = 5-7 million head a year.

Wherever it ends up there are fewer hogs coming and we expect breeding herd liquidation will not stop June 1st. Could end up with breeding herd down 500,000 before all the dust settles.

U.S. Pork Export

It’s not hard to imagine that U.S. Pork Exports would drop when hog slaughter numbers have declined significantly over the last six weeks. Less Pork – less to Export. Also, the huge jump in Pork cut-outs that got over $1.20 lb. would have foreign buyers to take pause.

The good news, it appears exports continue to run about 12-15,000 tonnes a week higher than a year ago (about 120-150,000 market hog equivalent). These types of numbers if they continue will support Pork cut-outs and hog prices as plants come into fuller harvest production.

Genesus News
Global Mega Producer

Genesus and The National Hog Farmer collaborate annually to survey the Global Swine Industry. The result is the Global Mega Producer Report which identifies the companies with over 100,000 sows.

The 2020 list identifies 34 Global Mega Producers that together own more than 11.5 million sows, adding more than 2.5 million sows to global production. These companies are located in 9 different countries respectively.

Click below for the listing and brief description of each company.  

GLOBAL MEGA PRODUCER LIST

Exploring four key food trends for 2020

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By Jo-Ann McArthur

Editor’s note: Jo-Ann McArthur is the President and Founding Partner of Nourish, a marketing agency that specializes in field-to-fork food and beverage, working across all aspects of the food ecosystem. Clients include producers, processors, retailers, manufacturers, food service and restaurants. Jo-Ann can be contacted at j@nourish.marketing. Sign-up for the agency’s monthly newsletter at www.nourish.marketing.

I always like to say that Nourish is an agency that knows a lot about a little. We have the dual privileges of specializing in the food industry and working across its entire ecosystem. As a result, we are often able to connect dots that others may not.

We publish an annual Trend Report, now in its fourth year. And by trends, I mean cultural forces and shifts, not fads. Fads are like a one-time volcanic eruption: they are briefly hot before they cool and then disappear. Trends are the tectonic plates that move beneath us and reshape the landscape. New food systems, as well as product development, take time, so we need to make sure we are looking at a longer-term horizon.

When we look at trends, we are not passing judgement or making value statements. We are just reporting what we see coming. Looking back, we are happy to say that all the trends we have covered since 2017 are still actively reshaping the food industry and providing opportunities for producers, manufacturers, retailers and food service providers.

Here are some of the trends that could affect you most in 2020 – both positively and negatively.

Make way, Millennials: Gen Z is on the rise

In our 2019 Nourish Trend Report, we identified a shift from Millennials to Generation Z as one of the top eight trends to watch in the food industry. Gen Z members today are roughly between the ages of four- and 24-years-old. They comprise a quarter of the current population, which makes Gen Z more numerous than both Baby Boomers and Millennials. Over the next few years, that figure will balloon to 33 per cent.

Remarkably, while they are still establishing behaviours, even the youngest are already influencing their parents’ and grandparents’ buying decisions. What we are learning is that they are markedly different from previous generations, especially when it comes to the way they view meat.

Gen Z is engaged, aware and optimistic about their ability to effect change. Almost half of all surveyed said they believe they can make the world a better place. Importantly, they have grown up in a digital world where no question cannot be answered with their mobile device, so they expect radical transparency. And they want proof – a claim without evidence (or a picture) is just noise.

We call this “Made Matters.” It is shorthand for things consumers care about: quality, ingredients, health, animal welfare, environmental and labour concerns. They want to know how and where food was grown or raised. Both Gen Z and Millennials are more likely to purchase animal-welfare-certified products.

The “Eating Clean” definition is expanding to include not just what is in food but the entire journey, from how it was raised and by whom, to the treatment of workers, animals and the environment. All these factors are growing in importance and are top-of-mind with younger consumers.

Canadians have a lot to learn about farming

Social licence still matters for producers.

Unfortunately, while Canadian consumers trust Canadian farmers, they do not fully trust our food system. The Canadian Centre for Food Integrity’s 2019 Public Trust Research demonstrated a dangerous disconnect between consumer perception of the food system and reality that needs to be addressed. Consistent with last year’s data, it shows that only one in three Canadian consumers believes Canada’s food system is on the correct course. Fortunately, those who feel the food system is going in the right direction outnumber those who think it is headed down the wrong track.

The same research shows that 91 per cent of Canadians know little or nothing about modern farming practices, but 60 per cent of Canadians are interested in knowing more – a trend we reviewed in the 2020 Nourish Trend Report. The disparity between consumer beliefs and on-farm practices must be addressed. As insiders, you and I know Canadian agriculture has world-class standards, but consumers are less clear on that fact.

Eating meat is no longer a black-and-white issue

The number of Canadians who identify as vegan or vegetarian is on the rise. Still, 64 per cent of consumers said they had no issue consuming meat “if farm animals are treated decently and humanely.” Consumers are looking for reassurance about how the animals were treated, backed by audits and robust standards. Producers have an opportunity here to share their best practices and excellent records on animal welfare.

In the 2018 Nourish Trend Report, the rise of “plant-based” eating was one of the disruptive trends we shone a light on. More Canadians across cultures and generations are reducing their meat intake and adopting a flexitarian lifestyle to support animal welfare, the environment and their health – the top three reasons cited in a Dalhousie University study. People under the age of 35 are three times more likely to consider themselves vegetarians or vegans than people 49 or older.

In 2020, attitudes towards sustainable consumption are reaching a crucial tipping point away from aspiration and toward necessity. Research conducted with online Canadian members of the Angus Reid Forum (on behalf of The Meatless Farm), found that 77 per cent of consumers say they understand the damaging environmental impact of eating red meat, and 74 per cent believe it is important to reduce their carbon footprint. Yet, only 38 per cent of Canadians reduced their meat consumption to do so.

Will we see the emergence of a “climatarian” diet, where consumers start making food choices not based on food preferences or values but instead based on carbon footprint and environmental impact?

The plant-based trend is here, and it is not leaving

Maple Leaf Foods’ plant-based Lightlife product line is an example of how traditional meat companies are diversifying and rebranding as “protein” companies.

Blended or hybrid products (such as mixed plant and dairy, or plant and meat) are starting to emerge as an easier way for consumers to moderate their carbon footprint without giving up their preferred taste for animal products. Rather than doing flexitarian as an “either/or,” it can be done as an “and.” Blended protein is an old concept that recent economic prosperity has taken us away from. During the Second World War period, there were Victory posters in Canada about protein rationing. Boomers grew up with mothers who mixed ground meat with oats to make the grocery money extend further. What is old is new again!

In the U.S., Tyson Foods recently launched Raised & Rooted, a blended meat and pea-based protein, shortly after selling its share in Beyond Meat, a totally plant-based processed meat substitute. Perdue, a major chicken processing company, offers a Chicken Plus line of products combining chicken and vegetables.

These products leverage the technology necessary to make plant-based products stable but incorporate real meat to deliver the taste and texture consumers crave. Given that plant-based ingredients are in short supply, this may soon be the only way new players can enter the market while staying competitive.

In Canada, Maple Leaf Foods, shifted its vision to focus on becoming “the most sustainable protein company on Earth.” (Note the exclusion of the word “meat.”) It has positioned itself for the future by creating a separate plant-based division and building a $300 million facility in Indiana to support growth.

We have seen rapid changes in consumer behaviour with the COVID-19 crisis. Some of that behaviour will have a legacy effect on our food system. We have already seen a shift-in-stomach from food service to grocery as more people cook at home. Consumers will want to support their communities and neighbours, so we should also see an even more significant move to locally- and Canadian-grown food.

Producers should seek better share of export prices

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By Bijon Brown

Editor’s note: Bijon Brown is the Production Economist for Alberta Pork. He is currently working on a cost of production study for producers, to use as a benchmark for comparing profits across the value chain. He can be contacted at bijon.brown@albertapork.com.

Hog production differs regionally not only by the feed inputs used but also by the pork markets served. Looking at the current trends in the Alberta pork export market, we can examine the difference between Alberta exports and exports from the rest the country. By acknowledging those differences, we can begin to understand where Alberta producers sit relative to producers in other key provinces.

U.S. share of Canadian pork export market on the decline

U.S. share of western Canadian and all Canadian exports. Source: Statistics Canada, Prepared by AAFC/MISB/AID/Market Information Section

Although the Canadian export market is largely dominated by shipments destined for the U.S., its relative share of the Canadian export market has declined over the past five years. From January to November 2019, roughly a quarter of all Canadian pork exports went to the U.S., down from about to 40 per cent in 2015. Meanwhile, the share of exports destined for Asia trended up to 21 per cent from 18.5 percent in 2015. The largest export market for central Canada continues to be the U.S., but Japan is the largest export market for western Canada.

From January to November 2019, western Canadian pork export volumes were about 440,000 tonnes, close to 2015 levels, but about 14 per cent below the five-year peak in 2017. Manitoba and Alberta accounted for most of the pork exports. Alberta exported more than 110,000 tonnes of pork products, down roughly 10 per cent from the corresponding period in 2018. This largely reflected a 29 per cent drop in exports to the U.S. and was partially offset by increased exports to Japan and Mexico. The decline in pork exports to the U.S. has resulted in the share of total Alberta pork exports dipping from 25 per cent in 2015 to 20 per cent in 2019. In the meantime, the Japanese share of the export market rose from 35 per cent in 2015 to 42 per cent in 2019.

Alberta exports fetch a premium in Asian markets

Canadian and Albertan pork export price to select destinations. Source: Statistics Canada, Prepared by AAFC/MISB/AID/Market Information Section

The shift towards Asian markets and away from the U.S. market has been mainly driven by economic incentives. Over the past five years, Canadian exports to Japan have attracted a premium over U.S. exports, averaging almost $1.20 per kilogram, with the Alberta export price premium averaging $1.80 per kilogram. Over the past two years, Alberta export prices for shipments to the U.S. dipped below $3.10 per kilogram from a five-year high in 2017 of around $3.50 per kilogram. Meanwhile, the average export price at the national level was $0.40 per kilogram higher, indicating that Alberta pork is being discounted in the U.S. market relative to pork shipped from other provinces. In contrast, Alberta pork shipments to Asia received a higher price than pork shipped from other provinces.

Alberta producers paid less for hogs

Monthly hog base prices in select provinces. Source: Statistics Canada-Table: 32-10-0077-01.

Despite the shift to higher valued export markets, the value of Alberta pork exports eased 13 per cent over the past five years, largely reflecting a 24 per cent decline in overall exports. In a region that exports over 40 per cent of its pork to markets paying a premium, it appears the price signals to Alberta producers have become distorted.

While Alberta pork attracts a premium, Alberta producers have seen base prices that were $0.08-0.20 less per kilogram for their hogs compared to producers in Ontario and Quebec. Currently, producers are paid a price that is derived from U.S. markets, which represents less than 20 per cent of wholesale export value. The economic realities in the U.S. market are no longer consistent with a significant portion of western Canadian wholesale pricing; it ignores the preferential premiums accessed in Asian markets.

Accordingly, farmers face lower prices, and these lower prices disincentivize investment and production. Lower prices signal that Alberta producers should reduce pork supply, which would reduce pork processed, marketed and, ultimately, exported. All this, even though there is increased demand through higher price signals coming from Asian trading partners. Prices to producers must more accurately depict prices earned downstream in the value chain. Otherwise, the inability to clearly send price signals through the value chain will leave money on the table for the entire industry, not just producers.