By Stuart Smyth

Editor’s note: Stuart Smyth is an associate professor with the University of Saskatchewan’s College of Agriculture and Bioresources, where he holds the Agri-Food Innovation and Sustainability Enhancement Chair. He can be contacted at stuart.smyth@usask.ca.

The farther we tread into 2022, it would appear this year is positioning itself to be one of the worst on record for producers and consumers, who are facing higher input costs, driven by supply shortages, that are threatening farmers’ livelihoods, food security and food pricing globally.

In addition to reduced availability of food, feed grains and fertilizer, political volatility and transportation disruptions have made the past year particularly bumpy. These factors are reflected in producers’ expenses and consumers’ ability to access affordable food.

War in Ukraine pauses production and export

Ukraine and Russia are leaders when it comes to crop production and export, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has added another dimension to supply chain woes.

Ukraine is the world’s leading exporter of sunflower oil, fourth-leading exporter of wheat and corn, and ranks seventh in rapeseed exports. Russia, on the other hand, is second in wheat, rapeseed and sunflower oil; fourth in barley; and sixth in corn. And both countries are facing trade dilemmas, for different reasons.

This spring, much of Ukraine’s arable land may go unseeded, due to the inability to safely deliver seed, fertilizer and fuel to farms, in addition to difficulties related to transporting existing stocks to export points, such as maritime ports on the Black Sea, from where container ships set sail across the world. Conversely, Russia faces trade restrictions and sanctions, which could be extended to commodity exports, as well as transportation access to port facilities.

Further compounding the problem in crop markets was the March 2022 announcement that Argentina has halted its export of soybean oil and meal. As the world’s leading exporter of both – accounting for 41 per cent of total global soybean meal exports and 46 per cent of soybean oil – these restrictions will negatively impact meal- and oil-importing countries that rely on Argentina, as they will now have to pay higher prices to import from other exporting countries.

Fertilizer prices are also considerably higher than last year. In the spring of 2021, urea prices were just over USD $500 per tonne, and by February 2022, the price rose to USD $900 per tonne, an increase of 45 per cent, according to data analyst firm DTN. Production delays at chemical plants have reduced the availability of some plant protection products heading into the 2022 crop year.

Crop farmers who still have commodities on-farm are fortunate, as they can still take advantage of receiving higher prices for last year’s yield. While farmers may benefit from the currently high commodity prices – whether in crops or livestock – input costs have also increased. Farmers will need to ensure their pencils are sharp and that they are able to improve their profitability in the face of rising input and commodity prices.

Canadian transportation faces disruptions

Inflation in February 2022 rose to 5.7 per cent year-over-year, the highest since the early 1990s. The rising price of crude oil throughout 2021 and into 2022 has contributed to increasing the cost of transporting food into and across Canada. Furthering this problem are challenges to transportation corridors – be it the flooding of highways and railways in B.C. and disruptions to key trade routes with the U.S., such as highways and bridges at international border crossings. 

A large part of the challenge facing agricultural commodity and food product supply chains is the increased competition for rail line access, most notably with the energy industry. Canada has a proven, safe network of oil and gas pipelines that, with some line expansion, could facilitate the transportation of tens of thousands of additional barrels of petroleum products per day. Because pipeline construction has been delayed or, in some instances, outright cancelled, agricultural commodities and food products must compete with the more profitable oil and gas exports for rail access, raising transportation costs even more.

As governments have been slow to recognize the significance of transportation as a key part of food security, officials are becoming more aware just how vital transportation is within agri-food. As consumers continue to express their concerns over food pricing, we may see greater emphasis placed on the movement of food products within Canada, by finding ways to overcome constraints.

Very quickly, governments in Canada need to decide whether to move oil by rail or food by rail, as the current approach of moving significant volumes of oil by rail needlessly contributes to higher food prices.

Sticker shock for shoppers

If 2020 and 2021 had been ‘normal’ years, the rise in food prices would not have been as dramatic as we are currently witnessing. The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted food processing and distribution, resulting in shortages of some products and higher prices for most products. After being subject to shortages, price increases and shrinking product sizes for the past two years, consumers are becoming wary of pushing their carts down grocery store aisles, as they are unsure of just what price increase is going to jump out at them next.

Consumers faced a constant barrage of food price increases throughout 2021 that show no sign of easing up this year, according to Canada’s Food Price Report for 2022. Last year, meat prices rose by nearly 10 per cent, dairy products were up by five per cent and bakery, fruits and vegetables were up by three per cent. Restaurant prices also rose by three per cent. On average, in 2021, food prices rose by four per cent and are projected to rise by as much as seven per cent in 2022.

In the fall of 2021, media reports indicated that consumers were foregoing some purchases, as the price of some products was beyond what consumers felt was reasonable. This may have been more noticeable at specific times of the year when families tend to gather to celebrate holidays or special occasions.  

While some consumers have been able to absorb the increased costs without much trouble, a growing number of Canadians are being priced out of the equation altogether, relying on food banks to meet their needs. This trend suggests not only frustration with the higher cost of living but also a crisis for public health, which is tied to nutrition.

Food insecurity grows in step with conflict

When we think of the food supply chain, Canadians should also consider parts of the world that are much less fortunate than ours. The United Nations’ World Food Programme (WFP) uses food assistance to build a pathway to peace and prosperity for people recovering from conflict and disasters.

Anticipated lower production and export of Ukrainian wheat will put significant pressure on the WFP, which buys 50 per cent of its wheat requirements from Ukraine. Much of this wheat is distributed to many food-insecure northern African countries. The lost access to this wheat would mean the WFP would need to buy the same amount of wheat at a higher price – or more worryingly – the amount of wheat purchased would decline due to a price increase, potentially resulting in more people becoming food-insecure.

In late 2007 and early 2008, economic and political conditions resulted in a food pricing crisis for many countries globally. At the time, several Asian countries had enacted bans on rice exports, resulting in even higher rice prices, exacerbating the problem. Export restrictions compound issues related to supply and pricing, and they are not viable solutions to complex situations, such as the sanctioning of Russia. Should Russia be hit with export bans, the net effect could be largely negative for everyone.

Are brighter days ahead?

While the future appears rather dark and ominous, rays of sunshine have poked through, providing some optimism. For example, if sufficient moisture is received during the coming growing and pasture season, grain supply could improve.

COVID-19’s impact on the agri-food sector is rapidly diminishing, indicating that processing and manufacturing will begin returning to full capacity. These capacity increases will help ensure that livestock producers can market their animals and that grocery store shelves will once again be fully stocked.

With farmers’ bottom lines and consumers’ pocketbooks feeling the pinch, we can only hope the worst of 2022 is now behind us and the remainder of the year is considerably brighter.  

By Greg Bilbrey

Editor’s note: Greg Bilbrey is an account manager with Pig Improvement Company (PIC). He presented during the ‘Management & Production’ breakout session at the 2022 Banff Pork Seminar. For more information, contact Ann Marie Ames at aames@filamentag.com.

Do you feel like you lack the time or resources for collecting and analyzing sow or pig performance data? You might have more resources than you realize.

When done correctly, comparing production data to benchmarks can pay for itself and improve your farm’s profitability. Using data, you can identify declines in pig performance and work back to identify the cause. Only then can you take steps to find a possible solution, whether it be changes in nutrition, management or genetics.

Even if you do not want to compare your herd’s data to other operations, you could find excellent opportunities for improvement by comparing your own current performance data to metrics from months or years prior. Doing so can help identify ways to generate better results in areas where your pigs are under-performing, which benefits profitability overall.

Analyzing data efficiently

One way to focus your efforts when comparing sets of performance data is to divide the set of closeout data into groups based on performance. Looking at narrower metrics can be more efficient than looking at averages. ‘Opportunity cost,’ in this case, refers to the financial difference between using narrower metrics versus averages.

For example, in a sample group of PIC wean-to-finish pigs, performance metrics led to an average USD $8.78 (CAD $11.17) opportunity cost per head in closeout data from approximately 122,000 pigs (Table 1.1). However, when the pigs were ranked in groups identified by the previous year’s performance data (Table 1.2), the opportunity cost is even more compelling.

Thirty percent of 2021 closeouts performed equal to the upper half of the previous year’s closeouts. The 2021 group had 1.76 pounds (lbs.) (0.798 kilograms (kg)) of average daily gain, a 2.32 feed conversion rate and 5.1 per cent mortality. Using standardized economics, PIC calculated a USD $1.39 (CAD $1.77) opportunity cost per head.

Seventy percent of 2021 closeouts performed equal to the lower half of the previous year’s closeouts. The 2021 group had 1.59 lbs. (0.721 kg) of average daily gain, a 2.40 feed conversion rate and 11 per cent mortality, resulting in a USD $12.58 (CAD $16.00) opportunity cost per head.

If the producer could move a quarter of the group from the lower half to the upper half, this could result in a positive shift of USD $225,000 (CAD $285,000) for that sample herd.

Investigating the causes of under-performance

The data shown in Table 2 was collected from PIC customers, representing about one million sows in 46 systems, between April and June 2021. The first column is data collected by PIC. The four additional columns are data collected by other national benchmarking systems. One commonality between systems is that producers who achieve more than 30 weaned pigs per sow per year kept their pre-wean mortality below 10 per cent. By focusing on pre-weaning survivability, producers could efficiently improve their litters per sow per year and pigs per litter – together known as ‘PSY.’

To pinpoint specific areas where potential improvements can be made in your operation, treat the process like an investigation or forensic analysis, working back from the performance data to find out what the numbers represent.

What factors are limiting performance? From one year to the next, changes in the market, health challenges and labor availability can impact pig performance. Physical factors such as feeder space, diet, water availability or space allowance can also drag down performance metrics. Consider which factor you think you can change and start there.

If you are convinced it is time to start or enhance benchmarking sow or pig performance, you can choose from a variety of commercial benchmarking systems. When evaluating them, consider the methods each uses to collect and analyze metrics. Variation between systems is common, and it is important to ensure you are comparing apples to apples.

When collecting data, begin with some historical information, if possible. If you can compile data from the previous three months or one year, you can quickly populate graphs and see trends. However, if you don’t have historical data, you can start at any point you choose.

Taking advantage of opportunities

Hog industry benchmarking programs continue to show wide variation in sow and grow-to-finish production. The variation indicates significant opportunities for increasing profitability. Benchmarking production can be an effective way to identify where or how you could keep costs down and improve the efficiency and profitability of your operation.

By Stewart Skinner

Editor’s note: Stewart Skinner is a hog farmer near Listowel, Ontario – about 150 kilometres west of Toronto. His article is a response to Lesley Kelly’s presentation during the ‘Human Resources’ breakout session at the 2022 Banff Pork Seminar. Skinner and Kelly are partners with the ‘Do More Agriculture Foundation’: champions for the mental well-being of all Canadian producers.

With every sunset starting a little later and lasting a little longer, we Canadians can start to anticipate the conclusion of another winter. While much of the art in our vocation has been altered by technology, there is still the rhythm of the seasons that every farmer must dance to, and spring is the favourite time of year for most. 

We emerge from our barns and sheds for the promise of another year and the hope of a bountiful crop ahead. Sadly, every year there are a few of our brethren that do not join us again – friends that succumb to a disease continuing to stalk farmers across Canada. Mental illness is no stranger to farmers, and, tragically, it continues to collect a heavy toll.

I first shared publicly about my struggles with depression and anxiety in 2013. Today, we are in an entirely different world; long-held stigmas that led to widespread repression of healthy outcomes for those who deal with mental illness are now in the rear-view mirror. Awareness among the general population is as high as it has ever been, following a watershed change in how the disease itself is viewed over the past decade. No longer do people ‘kill themselves’ – they die of suicide after battling a deadly disease. This positive environment means more people feel safe to get out of their own shells and seek help, whether it be traditional therapy, medication or alternative treatments like music or art therapy.

Awareness has never been higher, but why are we not making progress on the farmer suicide front?

As a person who has lived with this for some time, there is very much an ebb and flow to how healthy my mind can be. Mental health is not a light switch – on and we are fine, off and all is dark and sad. It is dynamic and ever-changing. Think of standing at the shore of the ocean; there are times of calm and times of uncertainty, the impact of which can depend on the tide itself. Picture the oncoming storm on the horizon; if the tide is out, those crashing waves can do less harm. Such is the case with our mental resilience. The impact of an unexpected calamity is dependent on the underlying health going into the crisis. A person who has a high degree of resilience has a better chance of living through the storm than someone who is already mentally exhausted prior to impact.

Over the past two years, I have watched the model I constructed to keep my resilience up be torn apart, ironically in the name of keeping me safe.

Due to poor first experiences with the field of psychiatry, I have always been skeptical of how most doctors approached mental health, given the heavy reliance on medication versus the basket of different therapies that have been developed. My resilience was buffered through communities – friends and colleagues that I could share with, recreational sports and my church. There were also unhealthy coping mechanisms present – alcohol and cannabis – yet on the whole, there was stability that came largely through community support.

Since the start of COVID-19, each of those healthy pillars has been taken away for at least some part of it, and in the case of sports, I have not bricked a three-point shot since our last basketball game, in January 2020. Conversely, while my church was closed and I could not meet a fellow hog farmer for breakfast at the greasy spoon in town, the lights never turned off at the beer store, and my body has now become fully addicted. It takes serious concentration to make it through a day without cracking a beer out of habit.

My partner, Jessica, and I founded Imani Farms, in 2015, when we purchased a sow herd from my parents. Over the years, we have experienced success and have been able to grow that into a business that focuses on niche markets like ‘Certified Organic’ and ‘Certified Humane’ for customers in Canada and the U.S. We entered into those markets to seek out value chains that removed the volatility of the traditional pig market. That said, we both grew up in pig farming families and understood the realities of the pig business.

2021 was a good reminder that, no matter the market you are in, pigs need to move on time, and you need to keep animals healthy. 2021 saw shipments come to a grinding halt mid-year, as COVID-19 wreaked havoc on Canadian meatpacking plants. Health has suffered, as we had a number of disease issues throughout the year – no small thing in a production system for which any antibiotics must be administered on an individual level. Add in soaring feed costs for good measure, and we had quite the tempest brewing. Now remember the previous analogy – that tempest hit when the tidewaters were already lapping at the pier. As wave after wave hit, my condition eroded further and further. There were two specific 48-hour periods last year when suicide was as close for me as ever, with a mind desperate to escape the pain and only a mental image of a loving partner and two beautiful children to shine through an inky darkness.

2021 has likely made me a better farmer; however, it has made me much more cynical about the progress we have seen on the mental health front. One cannot deny the importance of awareness – these words do not get printed on these pages in decades past. Yet, how much of that awareness was generated from a genuine place and not just a shrewd method to improve a corporate or personal image? 

I say that I have become cynical, because I have learned over the past 12 months that if my personal story challenges the worldview of another, that person is more apt to dismiss my experience than actually listen and learn. Perhaps, they get uncomfortable. At the root of my newfound cynicism is that farmers are still dying from mental health issues, and the people with the power to change it are only interested in ensuring that they do the bare minimum to justify a couple hashtag-laden tweets on certain days of the year. 2021 was the year it became apparent to me that our politicians view farmer suicide no different than national expenditures on fertilizer – just another line item on the income statement.

Friends, things are not fine. I have hog farming friends who, by the time this hits your mailbox, will no longer have a hook for their pigs. We are about to enter a farming season during which we can no longer assume that the part we need to finish the job before the rain hits will be at the dealership. We have federal regulations that are quickly becoming out-of-step with our global competitors. We have uncertain times, with the price of farmland skyrocketing once again and high interest rates lurking just around the corner. All of the factors that make farming one of the most stressful occupations are inflamed. Things are not fine.

Is all lost? Should we throw up our hands and be happy that at least we have created a society in which we celebrate those who seek help versus belittle?

Personally, I would like to move from being a line item and instead be classified as an intangible asset.  We can start by tearing down the silos that dominate the traditional healthcare field, and as a country, we can decide saving farmers’ lives today is more important than haggling over jurisdiction or who is paying for what. 

There is an urgent need for a national, bilingual, 24/7 crisis line that is available to every farmer from Comox to Codroy, staffed with professionals that have been trained specifically to deal with farmers – the type of people who know it is a bad idea to tell a farmer to ‘just take a break’ at the height of the busy season. Beyond that, the need is no different for the more than seven million other Canadians who deal with mental illness – a national pharmacare system so that financial standing does not get in the way of finding the right medication and improved accessibility to therapy.

The farmer is the lynch pin of Canada’s largest industry, which employs more Canadians than any other already, while having the potential to continue growing. There are less than half a million of us left in Canada, and the institutional knowledge in our collective hive mind is what will ensure each year there are dancers ready to hit the field when mother nature starts playing her springtime tune. One could argue we are a resource worth protecting.